SOTS 2nd Hour: Jobs Report Takeaways w/Goldman’s Chief Economist, Plus: Tax Bill Winners & Losers 7/3/25

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How those ahead stay ahead.

Carl Quintanilla (1:32)

Market Moving Insight and Analysis join Jim Cramer, David Faber and me, Carl Quintanilla on the opening bell hour of CNBC Squawk on the Street.

Sara Eisen (1:48)

Good Thursday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen, the David Faber and Wilfred Frost. We are live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl has the morning off. Stocks are rallying. We're record highs for the SMP and the NASDAQ. Another strong day where tech is leading. Information technology, best performing sector in the SMP right now, led by Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Broadcom, Palantir, Data Dogs having a great day. It's gonna be added to the SMP next week. But overall strong, financials up a lot. The only groups that are lower are defensives, like consumer staples and real estate. Also, material is a bit lower. As for treasuries, reaction to better than expected jobs report sends yields higher, dollars stronger, 10-year yield 433, two-year yield also firmer 3.87%. Today, Goldman Sachs' first take on the jobs report, global chief economist Jan Hatzius will join us to talk about why this week they moved up their expectations about when the Fed's first rate cut could come. Plus, chip design companies popping on news that the US is lifting restrictions on China, but we have an analyst who says it may not be in all clear for investors in those names just yet.

Jim Cramer (2:54)

First, let's get some breaking economic data. Just cross, Rick Santelli has that for us. Rick?

Rick Santelli (2:59)

Yes, and there's a lot of it. If we look at the factory orders, durable goods, let's start there. Factory orders for May up 8.2%, up 8.2%.

I have five years here. I don't have a higher number. That is a huge number. And that follows a slightly revised minus 3.7, that moves to minus 3.9. We started out the year in single digits. It certainly seems, though, this is telling us that all the trade pull forward may indeed be over. Now, let's look at ex-transportation, because maybe this is just all aircraft. And indeed, 8.2% drops down to, as expected, up 2.10. So we can see that aircraft really made the big difference there.

And if we look at durable good orders, now, all of these are May final, so we replaced mid-month read. And that was 16.4% was the mid-month read. It remains there. And once again, in large part due to aircraft, up half 1% if you strip out transportation, which remains exactly as it was mid-month, as does capital good orders non-defense ex-air. That's the core number, up 1.7. That is a really solid number. It remains, that would be the second best number of the year outside of January at 1.8. And if we look at Chipman's versus orders, it lost the 10th versus our mid-month read from half a percent to 2.4. Now, it doesn't end there. Yes, we have ISM services. We saw S&P Global Services, 50.8 on the headline. 50.8, that would be the best since April when it was 51.6. If we look at the prices paid, we'd prefer this go down. It actually did. 68.9 expected, 68.7 in the rear view mirror. A very subtle drop. 67.5, that would be the smallest since April when it was 65.1. But last month at 68.7, still was a large number. That was the biggest since NOVA of 22 on the prices paid front. If we look at new orders, new orders at 51.3, it pops back into expansion territory. And finally, let's look at employment. Considering we had a pretty good employment report, this is a bit misleading. It moved from expansion 50.7 to the June read of 47.2 back underneath. And that would equal, actually, 46.2 in March. So you can see that's how we comp. We are definitely still looking, as Sara pointed out, holding on to the gains of the better than expected jobs report. Yields are up, equities are up. And of course, next week, we're going to have supply threes, tens and thirties. It's going to be a dynamic week after a shortened session this week for tomorrow's closure and today's early closes. Sara, back to you and happy Independence Day.