SOTS 2nd Hour: Iran Deadline Nears, Gaming Out AI's Labor Impact, & LIVE: Robinhood CEO 4/7/26

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Sara Eisen (1:04)

Good Tuesday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Coming up this hour, oil prices moving higher as we close in on President Trump's deadline for a deal with Iran. We'll talk with Rockefeller's Ruchir Sharma about why he says this oil shock is different from all others in the past. Plus, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev with us after news that his company has been selected, along with BNY, to help run the government's Trump account for kids.

And some details on big individual movers this morning, including UNH, Broadcom, and a major jump for Universal Music. We'll dig into all of that. But guys wanted to start with the jobs picture because we did get some incremental news from ADP. They put out the sort of weekly number, 26,000 jobs per week, according to their latest sort of hiring polls. It's a weekly update of the monthly ADP private sector jobs report. But what you need to know here is that it was the third straight week of improvement in hiring. That's a good number. We want to see improvement in hiring, especially amid all the noise and the concerns that employers would be holding back as a result of the war and of the oil spike. So it just adds to evidence, I think, on top of the jobs report, the government report that we got on Friday, on Good Friday, that was good. Amid some mixed messaging around jobs and what might happen. But I really wanted to dig into the AI story. How much is AI impacting the job market? David, I know you focus on this a lot. We all do, because we're trying to figure it out.

David Faber (2:34)

I mean, it's the most important.

Sara Eisen (2:35)

There's nothing more important than this.

David Faber (2:37)

Now, it doesn't mean that we're going to have any answers or that even things are happening near term. So everybody's just guessing, Sara, but it's not unimportant.

Sara Eisen (2:45)

But what we're starting to get past the guessing is some Wall Street research on just how they're analyzing it. And of course, it comes with the caveats that we're certainly early in the adoption phase. It's hard to tell exactly. You know, we get these announcements. The latest was crypto.com based out of Singapore, that they're going to lay off a certain percentage of their workforce because of AI. But we don't know exactly what that means. Is it really because of AI? So let's just start with a Goldman Sachs chart that I found interesting this week. So they look at basically employment with industries with AI augmentation versus industries with AI substitution. And there's a big difference there. Augmentation, the high line, actually shows employment growth. So this is the key to AI, right? If your job can be augmented or helped out by AI, you're seeing better employment trends versus AI substitution. How do they measure this? Well, they look at different augmentation occupations, medicine, right? We know that doctors are using AI and first all sorts of tests like colonoscopies, education they include in that. They basically added 9000 to monthly payrolls and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06. So, we're talking about small incremental numbers here but just as a road map. And then the substitution is more IT services, the software engineers, and that's where they see the bigger risk overall. So that's the Goldman chart. And then Morgan Stanley also, guys, did a chart. They have their own sort of proprietary way that they look at AI exposure. And they looked at basically, now this is the reverse, it's the unemployment rate based on AI exposure.