SOTS 2nd Hour: Iran Analysis - Jack Lew, Sen. John Fetterman, & Goldman's Co-Head of Global Commodities 3/4/26

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SPEAKER_2 (0:03)

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SPEAKER_1 (0:06)

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Phil Camparelli (0:10)

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SPEAKER_2 (0:11)

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SPEAKER_1 (0:16)

Right, so we shouldn't get the parachute pets?

SPEAKER_2 (0:19)

These are making a comeback.

John Fetterman (0:22)

I think.

SPEAKER_2 (0:23)

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Sara Eisen (0:45)

Good Wednesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Coming up this hour, we will talk to former Treasury Secretary and former US Ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, about the war, the impact on inflation and some breaking details on the administration's tariff plans. Plus, Democratic Senator John Fetterman will join us to explain his outspoken support of President Trump's decision to strike Iran ahead of a key war powers vote later today. And we're on Supreme Court watch again as we await a potential decision this hour on President Trump's authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. We'll bring you any headlines if we get them as soon as we know.

Carl Quintanilla (1:27)

Let's get some ISM services first with Rick Santelli. Hey Rick.

Rick Santelli (1:31)

Hi Carl. Well, we know that the S&P Global gave a little back but remained above 50 A big story difference with ISM. These are good numbers. On the headline number for February on services, 56.1.

Well above the 53.5 we're expecting. That's the best level since July of 22 And prices paid going down, which is a good sign. 66.6. The evil number in the rear view mirror turns into 63.0. That will be the smallest price it paid, the inflationary component going back to March of 25 Now, if we look at new orders, we're looking at 58.6, well above 53.5, well above 53.1 in the rear view mirror. 58.6, that will be the strongest since September of 24 And finally, the employment side, which is key considering we had ADP today and we have the big February job, jobs report on Friday, 51.8, we were looking for 50.6, rear view mirror 50.3. 51.8 would be the best going back to February of 2025 We see right now that we're at 407, up one basis point in a 10-year and a 351 in a two-year is unchanged. Treasury market through all of this has for the most part been quite calm. Sara, back to you.

Sara Eisen (3:02)

Okay, thank you, Rick Santelli. As for the rest of the markets, just want to check where we are as we enter day four here of the strikes on Iran. Obviously, energy and oil prices and gas prices, that's at the center of the storm. And actually, there's some give back today. Not a lot, but crude oil here in the US., it's down three-quarters of a percent, Brent, the international benchmark down half a percent after we saw a big jump over the past few days on disruption concerns. Maybe it's helpful that President Trump did say that they would, the US would help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary, to get that oil flowing from the Middle East. Few other key hotspots in terms of market ripple effects from what's happening in the world. The Korean market, the Cosby, you guys, it had a record fall overnight, down 12 percent. So the hottest market in the world goes really into panic mode.

It's only been open two days this week, but in that time, it's down about 18, 17 percent in that time period. What's happening here? Well, Korea is a big importer of oil and gas. So when prices spike, there are concerns there. And it was a one-way bet on the Korean market, right? There's a lot of leverage in that market. There's a lot of retail trading. And when it snaps and goes the other way, that shows the danger of, you know, this sort of high leverage, high margin retail euphoria that's been in the market around AI, names like SK Hynex and Samsung. I mean, it can be a violent correction.