SOTS 2nd Hour: Goldman's Chief U.S. Economist Talks Stocks, Software's Hard Fall, & Financials To Bank On 4/10/26

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Carl Quintanilla (0:58)

Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Seema Modi and David Faber. Live at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange, Sara Eisen is off today. Are the bulls back in charge? We're going to talk about whether this week's relief rally and last week's isn't all clear or just a head fake. Bank earnings, of course, kick off on Monday with Goldman, just as top Washington officials meet with some bank CEOs about the risks from these new AI models. We've got some new reporting ahead. And software, once again, sitting out this week's rally. We'll take a closer look at the fears weighing on that sector with Salesforce, the biggest Dow laggard. First though, some eco data crossing. Let's get to Umich and more with Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick.

Rick Santelli (1:37)

We're going to do Umich and I'll tell you what, buckle up. These are some weak numbers. If we look at the headline, this is the Universal Missing Sentiment, April preliminary in a couple of weeks, they'll fine tune it. And remember, the low read that we had was in 22 at 50 And my database goes back to 1978 The new read, 47.6.

I don't have anything up back to 78 That's any lower than that. And if we look at current conditions, that was headline 50.1, same scenario. My records have 50.4 is the low. So another very extremely low level. And expectations, 46.1. 46.1, do I have anything lower than that? I don't. I have 47 in change. So another one that goes beyond mine. If we look at inflation numbers, 4.8 on the one-year inflation. That would equal where we were in August of last year to find a higher number. You're in June of last year at 5%. 5 to 10-year, 3.4 as expected. Rear view mirror, 3.2. 3.4 equals November to find a higher number. You're back to October 25 Now we have a litany of numbers here with regard to durable goods and factory orders. On the durable goods side, these are all final reads. So minus 1.3 replaces minus 1.4. Strip out transportation, 9-tenths replaces 8-tenths. On non-defense, ex-air proxy for capital spending. On the order side, 7-tenths replaces up 6-tenths. And on the shipments, 1% replaces 9-tenths of a percent. And let's look at factory orders. These are fresh February numbers. On factory orders, what do we have? Headline number comes in at zero, unchanged. Goose egg, we're expecting a negative number. Last month gets revised to zero as well. And if you strip out transportation on this February factory orders number, 1.2, that is three times what we're expecting. Extransportation is really strong. 1.2 would be the strongest level going back to August of 23 How did the market digest all of that? Well, interest rates started to go up after that warm CPI, and they continue to move up a bit. Listen, these University of Michigan sentiment numbers are a survey. They look extreme to me, and that doesn't surprise me. But we do know that what's going on in the Middle East, it's a real question of how long it lasts, and that'll give us a better clue as to how long these levels on some of the data I just gave you will last as well. Seema, back to you.

Seema Mody (4:20)

That's important context, especially on consumer sentiment. Rick, thank you. Let's turn our heads now to Iran, ahead of tomorrow's expected meeting in Pakistan. Megan Casella joins us from Washington on what we can expect as we count down to what could come of this meeting between the US and Iran, Megan.

Megan Casella (4:35)

That's right, Seema, a lot to watch. Vice President Vance taking off for Pakistan just a little over an hour ago, and he told reporters on his way onto the plane that he expects the talks will be positive.