SOTS 2nd Hour: Goldman Sachs Vice Chair, Orlando Bravo Talks Tech, & Movers To Know 10/7/25

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Sara Eisen (1:01)

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla. We are live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber has the morning off. Coming up this hour, Tama Bravo, managing partner Orlando Bravo, will join us here at Post 9 as hundreds of billions of dollars flow around the AI ecosystem. We'll talk about where the tech buyout firm is putting money to work right now.

Plus, former Dallas Fed president, Robert Kaplan, will be with us to talk about the shutdowns impact on the Fed and on the economy. That's where we start today, Carl. We don't have the official economic data coming out, so everyone's trying to figure out what's happening, particularly on jobs, especially because this is a time where the market was starting to worry about what the job market is showing, and there's a lot of uncertainty in the data. So what can we do? Well, we can work with what we've got. And so I put together a few real-time indicators or leading indicators to show us what we might be seeing on jobs if we were to have gotten a jobs report, which we didn't because of the shutdown. So Carlyle put out a real-time indicator today. They looked across all their businesses. Remember, they own a lot of businesses in private equity. They have, I think, more than 700,000 people working for them. So here's what they're estimating, 17,000 jobs added in the month of September. And that would be a step down from what we saw in August, which was 22,000. But also sort of jibes with the weaker jobs growth we've seen lately. Remember, June, according to revisions, actually went negative on job growth. So that's what they're estimating. And then the other one that I always point out is the NFIB hiring intentions. This is from the Small Business Report, Small Business Sentiment. They poll small businesses about what their plans are to hire. It's a leading indicator. And actually, Pantheon Macro says it's one of the best indicators with a four-month lag. So in other words, we saw the downturn a couple months ago. We're starting to see the weak data. They actually, Pantheon notes the uptick recently in small business hiring intentions and is higher than consensus on September jobs. Actually says we could see 70,000. So just a few sort of things out there. People are looking at the indeed job openings data. People are looking at ADP, which did come out, showed weakness, job losses for the month, and trying to figure out where the trend is right now. Doesn't look like stocks seem to mine, though.

Carl Quintanilla (3:22)

No.

Sara Eisen (3:22)

Maybe out of sight, out of mind.

Carl Quintanilla (3:23)

No. The market is accentuating something entirely different than the consumer or macro or employment. It's all about the industrial revolution, even daily today. Didn't seem that in her comments to Axios. Doesn't think it's much of a financial bubble because the companies are so strong and thinks that whatever disruption comes, society as a whole is going to benefit from the change in technology.

Sara Eisen (3:47)

Yeah. I mean, at this point, it's hard to deny the fact that that's what's moving the economy and the market is the incredible capital spending that is going into AI and how that's playing out. I mean, I'll just give you one more on the jobs front to show you the trend. We got the conference board last week. This is consumer confidence and it was a little bit lower because people were worried about jobs. Here's the employment trends index and it's trending down. We know that people are more worried about getting a job and that also, that's apparently a very good coincident indicator. Pantheon looked at some of the correlations, which shows there are 16.1 percent anticipate more jobs. That was down from 18 percent in August, according to the conference board. Almost 26 percent anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.9 jobs. The picture overall is sluggish job market, at least on the hiring front. The good news is we haven't really seen much in the way of firing. We don't get the jobless claims because of the shutdown, but that had been the trend going in.