SOTS 2nd Hour: GDP Data Hits Stocks, Trump’s First 100 Days, and Key Earnings Movers 4/30/25

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Sara Eisen (1:02)

Good Wednesday morning and welcome back to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber, live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks are under pressure this morning. We do have some weaker data, which we'll talk about GDP, ADP. We'll get PCE in a moment. The S&P 500 giving back 2.25 percent after a string of gains here. NASDAQ down 2.8 percent, so it's getting hit hard. Take a look at treasuries as we await even more economic data on a data heavy week ahead of the Fed next week. As we digest that negative GDP number, we'll show you what bonds are doing in just a moment. But Dow is down about 714 points as we speak. We're 30 minutes here into the trading session. Here are, there it is. There's the treasury. I was going to show you that bonds are, they're buying bonds, yields are lower, except for on the long end. Three big movers that we're watching. Super micro shares plunging after issuing weak preliminary guidance as they point to quote delayed customer decisions. Shares now nearly 75% off their all time high seen last March. Number of consumer food and beverage names on the move after results out of Starbucks, Mondalys, Yum Brands, Newell Brands and more. Starbucks the biggest loser after an earnings and revenue miss and results out of two Dow components as well this morning. Caterpillar reports lower sales driven by weak volumes and pricing.

Cat issuing two outlook scenarios, one with and one without tariff impacts. Well, Visa beat estimates on quote resilient consumer spending. So some mixed messages there.

Carl Quintanilla (2:30)

Big morning for economic data and even more crossing the tape. Let's get back to Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick.

Rick Santelli (2:36)

Yes, Carl and Dean. Now there's a lot of components here. So I'm going to go slow. Personal income and spending for March. Income up a bit better than expected, up half a one percent. And last month's powerful up eight tenths gets downgraded, but only by a tenth. So seven tenths, nice back to back numbers. On the spending side also better than expected, up seven tenths. And in the rear view mirror, an upgrade from four tenths to up half a one percent on spending. Real spending adjusted for inflation, up seven tenths, up seven tenths. That's the best number since Jan of 23 Now let's get into it. PCE, month over month, unchanged as expected. In the rear view mirror, we do pop from three tenths to up four tenths, which makes zero look maybe that much better. Now if we look at PCE year over year, up 2.3, that's just a smidge warmer than expected. But last month's 2.5 moved up to 2.7, now down to 2.3, that is indeed good news. Now, if we look at the month over month on the core PCE, that was expected to be up a tenth to two tenths. It is unchanged. We pop a tenth in the rear view mirror from up four tenths to up five tenths. And finally, the number seven component, maybe the most important on the inflation front, PCE core year over year. Last month, it was 2.8, that moved up to 3%.

New reading, 2.6, exactly as expected. That would be the lowest reading going all the way back to, believe it or not, March of 21, March of 21 Now, it doesn't end there. Let's quickly look at home sales from a pending home sales perspective. This is the month of March, 6.1% on pending home sales month over month. That is a powerful number, much stronger than expected, the best since December of 23 And finally, that's month over month. Let's take a year over year perspective. Down 1.10, now that doesn't sound good, but believe it or not, that's still the strongest number since November of last year. We've had some big negative numbers. Interest rates have had a lot of movement today, but maybe the most important thing is with GDP, when those big inflation numbers hit, rates popped up. As equity started to show a lot of red, interest rates were very responsive and you turned a bit lower. Sara, back to you.