SOTS 2nd Hour: Fed-spectations, Coreweave CEO Talks Demand, & Oracle: Buy, Sell, or Hold? 9/22/25

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Sara Eisen (1:01)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber live, as always, from Post Night of the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks under a little pressure here at the beginning of the week. The S&P, oh, it's kind of come back toward the flat line, started out lower. Nasdaq bucks the trend a little bit higher and the Dow's down 100 points. As for Treasuries, as we kick off the week, we get a lot of Fed speak and then the big PCE report at the end of the week. We're seeing a rally mostly, two year through the 10 year, all rallying. The 10 year yield is sitting though at 4.133 and the 30 year yield is a little bit elevated. Ahead this hour, the CEO of CoreWeave joins us. That's stock up more than 200% since its debut just in March. We'll talk Nvidia, demand for AI and much more. Plus, we will discuss the tech news of the morning as Oracle names new leadership, replacing Safra Catz as CEO. But guys, as we kick off the week, you're going to hear a lot of Fed speak. The big question is, where does the Fed go from here after we got that first rate cut? I thought this chart was interesting. It shows that we have the Fed projections. They put out all their dots, all their predictions about where they think rates are headed. This is how different the market and the Fed sees interest rates by the end of 2026

The market thinks there's going to be a lot more rate cuts than the Federal Reserve. The Fed is in orange. That's their forecast from the so-called SEP or dot plot. And you can see it's higher. Market's banking on more cuts than the Federal Reserve. We're already starting to get some commentary, by the way, hearing from the Fed President, Musallam, from St. Louis. And he's speaking at the Brookings Institution. And actually making some interesting comments, I would say more hawkish comments. Obviously, he said he voted for the 25 basis point cut as a precautionary move to support the labor market, but also warned against going too far without easing at this juncture. So not necessarily a lock on more rate cuts. The median dots show two more cuts by the end of this year. But six of them didn't see any more cuts by the end of this year. So I don't think it's necessarily assumed that the Fed is just going to keep cutting, cutting, cutting, cutting, cutting to neutral.

Carl Quintanilla (3:18)

I mean, the market always overestimates the number of cuts. There's lots of charts to know that the timeline charts where the market was looking. Remember earlier in the year we were looking for six cuts? Some said four. I think Waller came on our air and said four by the end of the year.

Sara Eisen (3:32)

And then we didn't get any until now.

Carl Quintanilla (3:35)

There was a really interesting Goldman piece on Friday about the labor market and then I think the Times picked it up over the weekend looking at college educated, the unemployment rate among the college educated rising in this cycle and who knows if that's technology or something else?

Sara Eisen (3:49)

I know that's one of the debates about whether AI is having an impact. And Chair Powell was actually asked about that during the news conference at the Fed meeting. And he said, look, it is probably a factor, but not the factor on the labor market was just how he's characterizing it right now without going into further specifics. But guys, Stephen Myron, the loan dissenter and the newest member of the Fed, the Fed governor who joined us on Friday, he's going to be speaking at the Economic Club of New York today, outlining his case for why rates should be lower and what he sees, which is he thinks that inflation, he thinks that immigration is disinflationary. He thinks there's no tariff inflation. I mean, he gave us a preview here on Friday. Remember what he said about why he wants lower rates?