SOTS 2nd Hour: FCC Chairman Carr, NEC Director Hassett, & Big Banks Breakdown 4/14/26

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Sara Eisen (1:05)

Good Tuesday morning, and welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen, joining today from Washington, DC, head of tomorrow's Big Invest in America Forum. I'm here as always with David Faber and Mike Santoli today, live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl has the morning off. Coming up this hour, two big interviews from here in the nation's capital. We will speak with Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr about news this morning around space communication and Amazon's deal to buy satellite company Global Star, among many other hot button issues. Plus, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett will join us as Treasury Secretary Scott Besson reportedly says the Fed should now quote, wait and see before lowering interest rates. And the latest on the mega round of bank earnings with numbers just out from JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. We'll have it all covered for you. But guys, here in Washington DC, it is the kickoff of the IMF World Bank meeting, which means that ministers, finance ministers and central bankers from all over the world are here in town and they were going to talk about how good the global economy looks and AI and all of the investment.

But then came the war in Iran and the IMF this morning setting the tone by lowering world GDP forecast. Now it's lower than it was three months ago, but it's not a disaster. So now the world economy is projected to grow 3.1 percent. Three months ago, it was at 3.3 percent, but they did say they would have upgraded it coming into today if not for the war. In the US, which is more resilient, today, than Europe, so the rising price of oil and the inflationary concerns, we now have a forecast from the IMF around 2.3. That was a tiny downgrade. Europe stands out because we saw some bigger cuts for countries like Germany and the UK, and then China also got a little bit of a downgrade. And just the other data point I wanted to bring you today that I think not enough people are talking about, Mike and David, is the China trade numbers, particularly the exports, which really saw a pretty big drop-off.

And the focus is on sentiment and the war in Iran. Remember, exports are really important for China's economy. Manufacturing exports make up about a third of the economy last year. And we really did see a big, you know, we saw two and a half percent increase in exports. That was a big drop-off from the first two months of the year, which saw a combined surge of 22 percent. It was way worse than expected. And it's something, guys, worth watching as we talk about the global economy and just where the fallout is going to be from this war.

Mike Santoli (3:34)

Yeah, and I guess, you know, Sara, it all kind of amounts to a bit of, for now, just kind of a stutter step in global growth. And, you know, the China export is kind of a sign of that.

I guess the disruptions in shipping, who knows if we're pushing the limits in terms of the duration of the disruption to where it's really going to, you know, hurt a little bit more deeply. But clearly markets are inclined to move on and believe that we've seen the worst.

Sara Eisen (3:59)

And the IMF did note that the downside risks are very large and it all depends on the duration of how long the Strait of Hormuz is closed and how long oil prices stay very high. So that this is a sort of base case around what's happening now. But clearly there are risks to the downside. But I think what stands out here, Mike, is the resilience of the US because we're not as dependent on foreign oil and because the consumer has been in pretty decent shape. And that's certainly something that you could argue the market is telling you.