SOTS 2nd Hour: Debasement Trade, Software Vs. Hardware, & Trump's High Stakes Mar-A-Lago Meetings 12/29/25

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Introducing Fidelity Trader Plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web, and mobile. For faster trades anywhere you go. Try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet at fidelity.com/traderplus. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

SPEAKER_2 (0:30)

At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu.

Sara Eisen (0:51)

Good Monday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with David Faber. We are live for you as always from post-night of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl Quintanilla has the week off. Had this hour, it's the home stretch of trading for 2025 And while AI hardware names like Nvidia were in focus this year, a different part of the AI ecosystem could dominate in 2026, we'll explain. Plus another key White House meeting coming today with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, following a weekend gathering between President Trump and Ukraine's President Zelensky, we'll talk to Richard Haass from the Council on Foreign Relations about what's at stake. And we've got the latest on the volatile silver trade as prices cool off after a record rally last week.

David Faber (1:30)

For so, pending home sales data just crossing, Diana Olek has that for us. Diana.

Diana Olick (1:35)

Well, David, pending home sales in November rose 3.3% from October and were 2.6% higher than November of last year, according to the realtors. That's a nice beat. The Street was looking for a 1% gain. It was the strongest read of the year and the highest level in nearly 3 years. This count is based on signed contracts. So people out shopping in November when the average rate on the 30 year fixed mortgage really didn't move much at all, but was lower than it was over the summer. Rates today are right around where they were at the end of November. Now, pending sales were up in every region, but the West saw the strongest jump up over 9% month to month. The realtors say more supply is attracting buyers to the market and affordability is improving slightly with lower mortgage rates. 22% of NAR members said they expect an increase in buyer traffic over the next three months. That's up from 17% in October, but down from 24% one year ago. Fewer realtors expect an increase in seller traffic. Sara.

Sara Eisen (2:33)

Diana, thank you very much. Good to see rising pending home sales. We're going to dive here into this debasement trade, even though Mike Santoli poo-pooed at last hour, because it is something that everybody is talking about right now. And the heart of it is that the dollar is down about 10% this year. Worst year for the dollar since 2017 It really, as you can see, started to weaken early in the year around the tariff announcements and pretty much stayed weak and continued to weaken gradually through the rest of the year. On the flip side, we have seen enormous strength in precious metals. Gold, silver, platinum, not so much in Bitcoin, which is interesting because people buy Bitcoin and some of them in the thesis that the dollar is weakening.

Byron Dieter (3:17)

Digital gold, right? I mean, how many times have you heard that?

Sara Eisen (3:20)

It turns out the place to be if that was your thesis is gold and silver and platinum this year in particular. Why is that happening? Well, look, you'll read a lot of stories about loss of trust in the US dollar, loss of trust because of the tariffs in the US as the sort of underpinning of the free trade system of the world, loss of trust in the Federal Reserve of Independence. Here's Goldman's Tony Pascarello on gold trading note. Maybe the chart tells the story of fiscal dominance, maybe it's gathering concerns around fiat currencies, maybe it's simply a serious increase in central bank demand, which we have tracked. Central banks buying more gold, particularly in China. Just another sort of explanation here, Pictet Asset Management, a reminder that geopolitical and debasement worries have the same hedge. Gold, Neuberger, investors effectively taking a massive and ever more expensive insurance policy and increasingly shaky financial and geopolitical system. So there's a lot here, geopolitics, the US dollar, could be the fiscal outlook and the spend of the US, which we're borrowing a lot. You haven't really seen those concerns in the bond market because there's been plenty of demand for bonds, but it is something we're going to continue to watch.