SOTS 2nd Hour: AI Trade Comeback, Shutdown Hopes, & Generac CEO Talks Data Center Demand 11/10/25

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Sara Eisen (0:31)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live for you as always for Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Today, does the shutdown progress signal an all clear for stocks into year end? We'll talk to market expert Dan Greenhaus about his expectations. The stocks rallied this morning after their worst week in months. Plus Instacart just out with results, giving us the latest read on the consumer and the restaurant space. But the stock gave up early huge pre-market gains. We'll talk about why. And then later, I can't miss interview with Fed Governor Stephen Myron with his read on inflation, the jobs market, and what the Fed should be doing at the December meeting. That is the question.

Carl Quintanilla (1:10)

Let's begin in Washington and the progress over the weekend to reopen the government after this historic shutdown. Emily Wilkins joins us once again from Capitol Hill.

Steve Leesman (1:18)

Morning, Emily.

Emily Wilkins (1:20)

Good morning, Carl. Yes, last night, eight Senate Democrats voted with nearly all Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government. And while the Senate still does need to take a few more votes, we are waiting to hear what kind of timing agreement they get for when that will be. Plus, the House needs to vote. We really do seem to be, at this point, on a glide path to reopening the government this week. So let's get more into the deal that was struck. So it would fund part of the government that includes agriculture, SNAP, veterans programs for the rest of the 2026 fiscal year. For other programs, it just continues current funding for until January 30th. The agreement also reverses those attempted firings of federal employees during the shutdown. It will also give federal employees back pay. We're hearing that that could happen very quickly after the government reopens. And Democrats are promised a vote on extending those health care tax credits. Now, to be clear, many Democrats oppose the deal. They've spoken out against it for not offering a more concrete agreement on those tax credits. But Senator Gene Shaheen argued last night that this was the best offer that Democrats would get.

Gene Shaheen (2:29)

This was the only deal on the table. It was our best chance to reopen the government and immediately begin negotiations to extend the ACA tax credits that tens of millions of Americans rely on to keep costs down.

Emily Wilkins (2:45)

We are waiting, of course, to see exactly what the next steps are going to be and when they are going to occur. We have heard from some sources that the Senate could vote as soon as today. House could come back a little bit later this week. And of course, now the big question is, are they going to be able to move forward on those Affordable Care Act tax credits? I just spoke with Senator Tim Kaine. He said he's heard from a lot of Republicans who want to find some path forward on those. But of course, remember, this is Obamacare. And a lot of Republicans, particularly those in the House, do not want to be able to vote on something that's going to continue that in any way, shape or form. Guys?

Sara Eisen (3:19)

So we're waiting, what next, Emily, on a full Senate vote? And then the House has to vote?

Emily Wilkins (3:25)

Yes, Sara, so there's going to be a vote. There might actually be a couple votes in the Senate. Basically, to move forward, they need to come up with a timing agreement. That means you need to get 100 people to agree on something. So we are waiting for that to happen and for next steps. We can say that the Senate is back in, and GOP leadership told House members last night to expect to be in this week.

Sara Eisen (3:43)

Okay, well, that's good, at least. Thank you, Emily Wilkins. K-Post posted in Washington. I'm focused on what the Fed's going to do in December, guys. There's now a little more than a 60% chance in the swaps market that they cut rates in December, which is actually the low end of the range of where it's been. Remember, there used to be sort of a near certainty that they were going to cut rates, and then Powell threw some cold water on it at the last meeting when he talked about how it wasn't a certainty. So there's been a lot of Fed speak out over this past weekend, over the last week, and there is a split really developing at the Fed, inside the Fed, about what to do in December, and it's not helped by the fact that they don't have official data. So here's Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President, out at last week. She is not a fan of cutting rates, and maybe a good thing for the markets. She's not a voter, but she says she remains concerned about high inflation and believes policy should be leaning against it. After last week's meeting, I see monetary policy as barely restrictive, if at all. It's not obvious to me that monetary policy should do more at this time. So if she were a voter, she'd probably have been a dissenter, it sounds like in the last meeting like Schmitt. By the way, Schmitt, who is the dissenter, didn't want to cut rates at the last meeting. In his dissent, he says he sees the stance of monetary policy as being only modestly restricted. When they say that it's not restrictive, it means that they don't want to cut rates more because they don't see it holding back the economy. Financial market conditions, he said, appear to be easy across many metrics, equity markets near record highs, corporate bond spreads very narrow, true, high yield bond issuance is high. None of this suggests, he says, that financial conditions are particularly tight or that the stance of policy is restricted. So David, I mean, we're not at record highs anymore. We're a little off there after the week that we had. But there is a good debate going on, and it comes back to the age-old debate for the Fed, which is, should we worry more about the firmer inflation or should we worry more about the softer labor market? And that's ultimately what it's going to come down to. And it's not clear. You have arguments on both sides for each of them.