SOTS 2nd Hour: A Divided FOMC, Rates & Real Estate, Plus: Lyft CEO Talks Waymo Deal 9/17/25

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Sara Eisen (1:07)

Good Wednesday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with David Faber. We are live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl Quintanilla has the morning off. Happy Fed Day. Take a look at stocks as we kick off the morning unchanged, waiting on the big event later this afternoon. That would be the Fed, the Dow plot, the press conference, and a rate cut, which is baked in by the market. The NASDAQ, it's down about a third of 1%, and the Dow is slightly higher. If you look beneath the hood, consumer staples, utilities and financials are your best performing sectors. Information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services are lacking. As for treasuries into the Fed meeting, we've had this 10-year yield just hovering right around the 4% level. That's where we sit this morning. There's some selling at the short end with a two-year at 3.5. We've got a great lineup ahead of today's decision. We will talk to former Fed economist Claudia Sahm. You may know her from the Sahm Rule, which she created, about why the market might be disappointed by Powell's messaging today. Plus, real estate titan, Willy Walker, will be with us to talk about the impact of lower rates on his business. And then also, Ed, the CEO of Lyft joins us first on CNBC, as the stock jumps sharply. Look at this move of 14 percent on this new partnership with autonomous driving company, Waymo. But let's start on the Fed. Every Fed doing it.

David Faber (2:23)

Really starting on the Fed?

Sara Eisen (2:24)

I'm shocked. Actually, you know what? Let's start with some news. Not on the Fed.

David Faber (2:27)

What do you got?

Sara Eisen (2:28)

I have some news for you. It's on a new position, a personnel change. So empty position, the number two role at the IMF. It's going to be filled, I'm told, according to sources, by the Chief of Staff to Secretary Besant from the Treasury. That would be Dan Katz. He's emerged as a trusted confidant on especially international issues. And he is going to go to the IMF. I'm told the IMF is going to make a decision in the coming days on this. It's important, David, because this is the senior-most position a US official can hold at the IMF, according to the Bretton Woods agreement, right? Kristalina Gorgeva is the European. It used to be Christine Lagarde. And now the number two, the first Deputy Managing Director, as it's called, technically, will be now this guy, Dan Katz, who is the chief of staff. He actually led the Ukraine economic talks. He went to Kiev with the secretary. He also has been part of all four trade negotiations that Secretary Besson has had with the Chinese, including the latest on TikTok.

So that's an important sort of announcement and a big one in the world of IMF, World Bank, International Economic.

David Faber (3:35)

Having known a few people who have held that position through the years, it's exhausting too.

Sara Eisen (3:41)

Yes, traveling the world, world leaders.

David Faber (3:44)

Just work a little less crazy hours. All right, now, let's talk about the Fed.

Sara Eisen (3:48)

Yeah, there you go. Okay, so every Fed day, what we do is we look at rates that affect Americans then and now. So, March 2022 is when the Fed started raising rates. So, we use that as a marker. The 30-year fixed mortgage, and that, remember, at that point, rates had already moved up a little bit because there was anticipation of rate hikes. But at that time, you could take out a 30-year mortgage for 4.3. Now, we're at 6.3. The HELOC, home equity loan, the credit card rates, we always say, like, this is what matters to people and why what the Fed is doing today matters. And then I also put in the market rates, too, just to show you how different things look, with the tenure at 4%, it was 2% back then, and then the short-term rate, which is really tied to where the Fed funds is, at 1.75, then 3.5 now, you know, the Fed's still above 4%, which would tell you that time to cut. It also just gives you a picture, David, of how, when we say restrictive, when the Fed says restrictive, this is what they mean, right? That it's still higher rates that Americans have to pay that is holding back the economy, which is why ultimately they are set to cut today because we're seeing some weakness in the unemployment market and it gives them some room.