SOTS 10AM: Ray Dalio on AI, Ken Moelis Sees Trillions in Value Ahead, Why Microsoft Popped 10/28/25

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Carl Quintanilla (1:07)

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with David Faber here at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange, along with Sara Eisen, who joins today from the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. An amazing lineup of guests coming your way in the next couple of hours, including Ken Moelis, Ray Dalio, Snaps Evan Spiegel, and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire. Plus some details on this news, sending Microsoft shares jumping this morning back above a $4 trillion in market cap. First, though, some consumer confidence data crossing, and for that, we'll get to Rick Santelli. Morning, Rick.

Rick Santelli (1:40)

Morning, Carl. Yes. A rarefied day where we're actually getting some data. Our October read on consumer confidence from the Conference Board. Expecting a headline number around 93.5 comes in stronger. 94.6. 94.6 will be the best since August when we were just shy of 98 There is a positive revision in the rear view mirror from 94.2 to 95.6, which means it isn't sequentially higher after you take the revision into account. As for present situation, 129.3, much better than expected. That follows 125.4 that gets upgraded to 127.5. The current read at 129, also the best since August when we were a little bit over 132 And finally, what lies ahead? Expectations. 71.5. This is a little weaker.

Last month, it was 73.4, but it does get upgraded to 74.4. 71.5 would actually be the weakest going back to June when it was just under 70 Also, some data out from the Richmond Fed. Their manufacturing index for October comes in a little less negative than expected at minus 4, and their service side comes in at minus 1, not quite positive. Minus 1 would be the strongest read since August when it was positive 6 As Carl mentioned earlier, 44 billion, 7-year notes at 1 o'clock Eastern, completing 183 billion in supply. And guess what? Today could be the 13th session in a row where the 10-year note closes somewhere between 395 and 403 Carl, back to you.

Carl Quintanilla (3:18)

Thanks, Rick. Rick Santelli, watching the MarketForce as well. The S&P coming off its first close above 6,800, and the first day of the Fed meeting kicks off today. Citi's US equity strategist Scott Croner joins us this morning to talk about this remarkable week that we're in the midst in. Scott, good morning. Good to see you.

Scott Croner (3:34)

Carl, good to see you.

Carl Quintanilla (3:36)

I got a would-be deal with China, MAG7 earnings on the way, Fed decision, market pricing all of this in in advance appropriately in your view?

Scott Croner (3:46)

We think markets pretty fully pricing this in. When we talk about our year-end price target for 2025, Carl, it's premised on 2026 fundamentals and earnings trends. So, essentially, what we're looking at here is a pay-forward for a lot of expected good news. That does look like it's unfolding, to your point, quite constructively here. So, the call for a stronger finish to the year looks pretty good for now, but this week will continue to be a big test as we get some of these mega-cap growers reporting.

Carl Quintanilla (4:14)

I saw a desk note yesterday that tried to argue that this week is the last important week of the year, given how holidays are gonna ramp up and we're gonna shut down, we're not getting all the data we're used to. What do you think happens in a relative vacuum of news going into the year end?

Scott Croner (4:31)

Well, our view has been that it's gonna be fundamentally based, and so the best set of data that we're gonna get right now is from corporate America, as they report earnings. So, the government shutdown aside, what we've got is a steady stream of input here that allows us to triangulate how things within the broader economy are unfolding. And right now, what I would say is that this consumer resilience and this underlying business resilience aspect is at work and showing through pretty clear in the Q3 results thus far.