Signs the Bottom Is In, Yardeni Sees Resolution, Buying Winners, New QQQ’s

Josh Brown (0:12)

Yup, it's us, here we are. Hey, we're not live, we're recording during the day. But we're on the cutting edge anyway. We're as up to date as we need to be, I think. But I just wanted to make that clear. I wanna give a shout out to everyone who's here for the debut chat. You guys are still welcome to come, of course. We beat the punch, but thank you for being here. Today's What Are Your Thoughts is being broadcast from a combination of Long Island and Southern Long Island. And Tax Free Florida. Yeah, Southern, right. The Nassau County of the South. I'm coming to you from Boca Raton.

Michael is on Long Island, and it's great to be here with you guys. If you're new to the show, on What Are Your Thoughts, we talk about all of the biggest topics affecting investors, traders, the markets, the economy of the week. We have tons of stuff to get to today. Super exciting, but before we do, we're going to give a quick shout out to our sponsor, Franklin Templeton. Michael, what's going on with Franklin?

Michael Batnick (1:19)

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Josh Brown (2:02)

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If you are interested in investing in the company, please contact the franklintempleton.com website. If you find the right investment opportunities, Janus Henderson Investors, investing in a brighter future together, visit janushenderson.com. So, all right, I'm gonna be giving you the first topic because to me, this is the most interesting question. We're still getting these insane headlines about the Middle East, which we'll get to in a second, but markets are not nearly as rattled as they were 10 days ago. And I guess the question is, is the bottom in? Many people are saying this despite the fact that entire civilizations will die tonight. Many people are saying the bottom's in. Why don't you take it from here?

Michael Batnick (3:19)

It's like the former president of the United States said, fool me once, can't get fooled again. What would have to happen?

Josh Brown (3:28)

Is that George W. Bush?

Michael Batnick (3:31)

This is saying in Tennessee, in Texas, maybe they say in Tennessee, too. Yeah, great stuff. So the VIX is at 25, 26

Despite the absolutely insane tweet from the current president, the S&P 500 is at down 67 basis points after a pretty decisive four day rally.

So I don't know if that was the bottom. Sure looks like one. But the question that I have to ask you is, what would have to happen for this not to be the bottom? Because investors are looking past whatever is happening today, whatever is being said.

Josh Brown (4:10)

Oh, like how would it escalate and get worse?

Michael Batnick (4:12)

Yeah. What would have to happen for us to retest those? Go ahead.

Josh Brown (4:16)

Yeah. A European oil tanker on fire.

Michael Batnick (4:19)

Sure.

Josh Brown (4:20)

Global news, like a French, because they're all paying Iran under the table.

Michael Batnick (4:25)

So my point is this. Absent something that we're not seeing today, such as an escalation of the events, yeah, I would say that was the bottom.

Josh Brown (4:34)

Well, we're going to start focusing on earnings tomorrow. So we're getting the banks coming up, we're getting Delta reports tomorrow, which I'm long, like we're getting important companies are going to start reporting, and that's where the market's focus is going to go. Unless and until an oil tanker owned by Total in France for example is on fire in the street. I'm making up an imaginary scenario, I'm not predicting.

That will give you your 30 VIX and that will end the talk about the bottom is in. Because right now, basically, everything hinges on whether or not we can get the 45 day ceasefire that's apparently being discussed or an end of the war with Iran, which seems unlikely. But basically, the way that I look at this is it's a hostage situation. The hostage is not a person, it's the Strait of Hormuz. It's being held for ransom. I don't quite understand why the Department of Defense didn't appear to have planned better for this. They're talking about landing troops on Karg Island and all these things that I don't fully understand. And I'm not giving a military opinion here. But it just seems like wasn't this obvious? Like this was the only pressure point that Iran had to apply on the international community. And were there plans to do anything about this? Or was it like, hey, we'll knock out all their military installations and all their navy, which is great.