'Shock And Awe' In September: Energy, Food ‘Going To The Moon’ | Jeff Currie

Frank Giustra (0:00)

The world order, as we knew it, has come to an end, and there is a massive competition for critical minerals. This is not a typical bull cycle in metals that we're witnessing. We're seeing a structural change in the way that the world is looking for metals. This is a completely different game.

Steven Dean (0:19)

Steel production could be flat, but the percentage that is required of high-grade product is increasing.

David Lin (0:29)

We talk a lot about commodities on the show. Critical minerals, precious metals, energy, especially right now is popping up in the news. It's very relevant to not just gas prices at the pump, but also how it affects diesel prices and our food supply. We're talking about something a little bit different today.

Iron and base metals surrounding steel. It's probably another really critical input into everything that we have in our economy. Joining me today is none other than Frank Giustra, CEO of Fiore Group and Steven Dean, Chairman and Director of the Oceanic Iron Ore Company. Welcome to the show. Gentlemen, thank you for coming on the show.

Steven Dean (1:12)

Thanks, David.

Frank Giustra (1:13)

Thank you for having us.

David Lin (1:15)

Steven, welcome to the show. Let's start with you. The investors care about commodities for various reasons. Why should we care about iron right now in 2026, given that China has historically been a really big component or consumer in the iron ore story, but the Chinese property market is in a free fall.

We just had the developer of the largest developer in China, the CEO rather, the largest developer in China, Evergrande, be arrested. The point is with consumer demand potentially falling for iron, what is the story right now?

Steven Dean (1:56)

Well, I'm not sure I agree with you, David, about consumer demand falling. You know, China still needs a significant amount of iron to keep up its steel demand and the nature of its steel production is changing to higher quality product. And secondly, it's also changing from the traditional blast furnace operation, which is environmentally less attractive than some of the new electric arc furnaces and other iron making methodologies. And with the changing environmental rules in China, combined with the need for other supply in other parts of the developing world, including places like India, Europe still needs steel, etc.

I think we're seeing a slight shift in the quality of iron ore that is required to support global steel production. And Oceanic fits perfectly in that square.

David Lin (3:01)

Okay, Frank, let's talk about the commodity cycle right now.

As we speak, there is a tremendous amount of money spent on AI and the CapEx build out surrounding hyperscalers, defense and reshoring as well, all of which require huge amounts of physical infrastructure. At the same time, it can be, it can take a long time for permitting to happen a decade or more perhaps to build out a mine. Are we living in a world where perhaps the biggest constraint on economic growth overall isn't money or technology, it's how much time or simply how much raw materials there are to realize our infrastructure ambitions?

Frank Giustra (3:45)

Yes, certainly. Well, listen, it's no secret that the world has changed. We're deglobalizing at the moment and the world order as we knew it has come to an end. There is a massive competition for critical minerals. We have this competition between the US and China.

China has been quietly assembling its supply chain of minerals for over 25 years now. The US and the West is just starting to realize that this is a problem and is trying to play catch-up, and so you've got all of these dynamics coming together, whether it's the AI infrastructure, it's the defense spending, it's all these needs for raw commodities including iron ore, and it's become very competitive because now you have to find ways if you're in the West to onshore or friendshore your mineral supply, and so it's a scramble, it's competitive prices. There are deficits in certain minerals, specifically copper, but all of these metal prices are going to remain robust during this competitive period as the world is changing.

David Lin (4:59)

Okay.

Just to add to that, so gold has been in a super cycle, arguably silver, copper is well new on time highs. How does iron ore fit into the picture alongside other metals that investors are familiar with? Anybody can take this question.

Steven Dean (5:21)

I can kick it off and I'm sure Frank will add to it. Iron ore is a remarkably stable commodity, largely because the extent to which some 60-70 percent of global seaborne supply comes from essentially four companies, and they're the majors we're talking about, the BHPs, the Rio Tintos, the Valais, and more recently, the Fortesquieu.