September Swoon? Arm Roadshow, Warner Bros. Discovery’s Warning 9/5/23

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

What's on the horizon for financial markets?

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Carl Quintanilla (0:31)

Market insight and analysis.

SPEAKER_3 (0:32)

You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Carl Quintanilla (0:36)

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer at post nine of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber's on assignment. Futures are mixed here as we kick off the full trading season. Watch for volume and activity to pick up as folks get back to work. Sell site conferences kick off. Ten year 421 A roadmap begins with a September swoon ahead. Historically, the worst month for stocks, but does the data give investors reason to expect otherwise?

SoftBank's Arm Holdings launching its IPO Roadshow, a blockbuster deal which could value the company as much as $52 billion. And we're watching media names as well.

WBD warning of some prolonged impact from the strike while Disney fires its latest volley in this dispute with Charter.

Let's begin with the markets on this short week of trading. It's great to have Cramer back in the chair. We missed so much last week, man. I mean, between Lulu and some of the China names and Chewie and Woof.

Jim Cramer (1:29)

First of all, thank you.

And it's great to be back. Thank you for all well-wishers. It was a triple hernia.

And I got through it and managed to come through it in a way I think that I feel very, very strong. I always love September in our business because everybody does come back to work, except for the people, of course, who still work at home. They ought to get back to work.

There are a couple points that I just think we have to talk about. One is the bonds are just going the other way. So that could be September's headwind. Again, the interest rates are up. And then the other, I think we're making what's too little about the strike, the UAW strike. By the way, the writer strike, obviously, from Warner Bros. is very important.

But these are two things that I think that people have to put on their radar screens because we won't have a lot of stocks reporting. The LULU was kind of one-off and great. MongoDB, similar. What's amazing about LULU, by the way, it's in the class by itself other than Chipotle. It's got high-expensive, senior-growth stocks that continue to beat expectations. Calvin McDonald doing a great job.

Brian Nicol doing a great job at Chipotle.

Carl Quintanilla (2:29)

Upgraded today over at Bernstein.

Jim Cramer (2:30)

And it was a very solid upgrade, although they should have done it last week, obviously. But Carl, this is, when I say that, you mentioned that September's usually a week or time. I mean, a lot of times what happens is beginning to get a lot of IPOs. The bidding gets supplied. That's going to happen.

Rates go up. That's going to happen. And then there's always kind of other issues away from the stock market that impact the stock market. Sure enough, I think that's the strike, especially because Stellantis, maybe they target that or maybe they hit all three. So it is the most exciting month of the year from our point of view, news, but it is a nerve wracking month. And if we get to 5% on the 30 year and we can talk about Waller's interview, then we will see mortgage rates, maybe even nine.

And we know the Fed wants some cool housing, but nine is a shutdown.

So we gotta be very clear if we're gonna continue the glide path like Goldman says with less chance of recession, we gotta be sure that we don't take out five on the 20 year. Because then what we start thinking is like, wait a second, we've moved too fast. So those are all the issues that I'm faced with. I shared some of them with the club this week.

Carl Quintanilla (3:38)

Some might throw student loans, the government shut down into September, or end of September, we'll see.

Jim mentions Waller talking with Leafs a few minutes ago, who did say that the data last week was pretty constructive to the Fed's overall mission. Take a listen.

Christopher Waller (3:54)

That was a hell of a good week of data we got last week. And the key thing out of it is it's gonna allow us to proceed carefully as Chair Powell said at Jackson Hole. There's nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon, so we can just sit there, wait for the data, see if things continue.