September Playbook, Kraft Heinz Split Decision, PepsiCo and Activism 9/2/25

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Carl Quintanilla (0:46)

Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Good Tuesday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer here at Post Night of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber as the morning off. Welcome to September and its treacherous seasonality getting reflected in pre-market as long-term yields soar, both in Europe and here at home, 30-year 499, as markets react to Friday's appellate court ruling on tariffs. Our roadmap begins with a set up for September, historically a tough month for stocks. Most of the president's tariffs ruled illegal by that appeals court. That deals a major blow to his trade policy. A lot of news in the food and beverage sector today, involving Kraft, Pepsi and Constellation Brands. Let's begin though with the market as we kick off a new month of trading. Jim, we know it's the worst month of the year, the back half of the worst two weeks of the year. But does this have a lot to do with Friday's court decision?

Jim Cramer (1:46)

Well, I think the court decision makes people feel that anything that's up in the air, maybe there are different countries that horse trade. We want to get past tariffs. We were hoping that we could be past tariffs and just focus on the beautiful bill. We can't, and as long as we can't, and as long as there's something like the president revokes Taiwan Semi, well, Taiwan Semi is the building block for Nvidia.

The just insecurity that people have, when you speak about having to have gone to a wedding for Ben Stodos, my research director, what the insecurity people have is just insane. I mean, everyone wants to get out. It's too expensive, who knows what's gonna happen. I want people to stay the course, but you have to recognize that you're gonna take a hit here. You're just going to.

Carl Quintanilla (2:29)

In the, you think just the seasonality alone?

Jim Cramer (2:32)

Yeah.

Carl Quintanilla (2:32)

Although you did suggest this morning that the administration might be able to surpass some historical analogs.

Jim Cramer (2:38)

Yeah, well, look, I don't want to sell. One of the things that gets you in trouble is you come out and you say, listen, I actually believe the president's plan for industry. Because then people say, oh, you love the president. No, half our viewers are both. I'm just saying, I believe that it could work. And not to panic because of some federal court, because the actual Supreme Court is five to three. I mean, so the people vote around party lines. Now, maybe Justice Roberts throws us a curveball, but I think that they go for it.

Carl Quintanilla (3:09)

If they take the decision.

Jim Cramer (3:10)

Yeah, no guarantees. Yes, if they take the decision. And then you get everyone's excited about the possibility that there'll be something, but I shouldn't say agitated, about China and Russia, the axis of evil, as if we, like, India, China, Russia. I mean, this has been going on for a while. And then the president comes out today and says, well, India is begging for zero. And I just say, the lack of clarity and the fact that the calendar says sell is going to drive things down. And then you add on the fact that the journal points out that it's more expensive than ever. I say, whoa, wait a second. We have tech up too much. We know that Nvidia is weaker. We know that Nvidia is the bellwether. It's now down a lot from where it reported. I'm just saying, don't panic. Don't panic. This too shall pass, but you're going to have to lose some money.

Carl Quintanilla (3:57)

Right. So a 5% maybe, 10 wouldn't surprise you?

Jim Cramer (4:02)

No, I mean, for a club, and I was working with Jeff Marks today, we don't want to buy anything today. It's too early. It's too early in September. Let things rain, come down. Plus, we have an employment number. And then you have another thing with the president. And those things drive the market down. Interest rates going up like this, not good. There's not a lot to say that's good right now. But we all knew it. So, I mean, at what point is it done? Now, I'm gonna give you the example of Constellation Brands STC. There are a lot of people who thought, it's how much more negative can there be? Beer's bad, wine and spirits are bad, the Hispanic numbers are bad. And then it comes out, and it's horrendous.