September 29th, 2026: Washington and Tehran Negotiating Behind the Scenes & Ukraine Gains Ground in Donetsk

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It's Tuesday, the 29th of September. Look at that. We are almost done with another month. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Oh, and look at that. Coming to you this morning from an airport lounge somewhere in an undisclosed airport location. Ah, the harsh lighting of an airport lounge. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the latest US-Iran peace effort may not be completely dead after all, although you'd be hard pressed to locate a pulse, with mediators reportedly still working as both sides dig in over nuclear concessions and sanctions relief. Later in the show, Ukraine says it continues to gain ground in northern Donetsk, retaking territory as its forces try to disrupt Russia's latest push in the east. Plus, two North Korean soldiers captured while fighting for Russia have triggered a diplomatic dispute between South Korea and Ukraine. In today's back of the brief, a new report says Egypt's intelligence chief personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the 7 October attacks, a claim that the Israeli Prime Minister disputes.

But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

Yesterday we reported that President Trump had rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the fighting. But today, it looks like diplomacy is continuing, well, in some fashion, supposedly. Mediators say indirect talks between Washington and Tehran are continuing, and despite Trump's public rejection, the proposal itself may not be dead. Officials involved in the negotiations are describing slight progress and positive signals from both sides. Look at how optimistic they are, even as the two governments remain far apart on what any agreement would actually require. Of course, if I had a million rial for every time mediators said there was progress in these negotiations, well, I'd have something like $10 or $20.

The biggest change, apparently, is what Washington now wants to put at the center of those talks. Iran's proposal focused heavily on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing the US blockade and creating a short window for negotiations. The regime wants Washington to back away from some of the economic pressure now squeezing the country and eventually return to the framework that both sides discussed earlier this year, and they reportedly are asking for some of their frozen assets to be handed over.

But mediators are now reportedly pressing Iran to make some kind of concession on its nuclear program as part of any broader agreement, and that is a much harder task. Iranian officials have publicly insisted they are not prepared to make nuclear concessions. Tehran is also demanding that Washington move first by easing economic and military pressure before expecting Iran to give up anything in return. It almost sounds like Iran still believes they're arguing from a position of strength. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend that Tehran remains open to diplomacy, but also warned that Iran is prepared for renewed fighting if negotiations fail. So both sides are still talking, reportedly, but neither side appears eager to make the first major concession.

There is some indication, though, that Iran's public position may be harder than its private one. The Wall Street Journal reports that a senior Middle Eastern official involved in the diplomacy believes that Iran had been close to making compromises on its nuclear program earlier this year during talks with Vice President JD. Vance. According to that official, Tehran would likely want explicit assurances that Israel would not launch another attack after any agreement. Washington wants meaningful restrictions, of course, on Iran's nuclear program. Iran wants relief from the blockade and sanctions, along with some confidence that making a deal will not simply leave it vulnerable to another Israeli strike a few weeks or months later. And, of course, complicating matters, both sides appear to believe that they still have the leverage. US officials believe the blockade is inflicting serious economic damage and weakening Iran's position at the table. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, appears convinced that it can survive prolonged economic pressure and withstand another round of American strikes if necessary. Iran may also believe time could work in its favor politically. Some regional officials say that the Iranian regime is watching the US midterm elections and calculating that Washington's willingness to escalate could change afterward if the Republicans lose control of the House and or the Senate. At the same time, there's no doubt that the economic pressure inside the country is taking a serious toll. The real has continued to weaken, sanctions remain tight, and Tehran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage may not be what it was earlier in the war. More oil is moving through the region, and US officials argue that Iran is gradually losing some of its ability to control the flow of shipping. Regional officials say power inside Tehran is increasingly concentrated around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and the IRGC has traditionally taken a much harder line toward the US and may see compromise under pressure as a sign of weakness.