September 25th, 2026: China’s Secret Lifeline to Iran’s War Effort Exposed & Trump-Xi Summit

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Mike Baker (0:43)

It's Friday, the 25th of September. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, still on the road, coming to you from, well, a hotel room somewhere. And look at the suit. Ooh, check out Mr. Businessman, as David Byrne sings. All right, let's get briefed. First up, US and Iranian negotiators are indirectly, through mediators, discussing a phase deal. They could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Washington's blockade of Iran. It seems like we've heard that story before. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Yemen's government forces claim that they've repelled the latest Houthi offensive, while Saudi Arabia says it intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Saudi targets, including an important Red Sea port. Plus, more suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. This time, after Poland says a fire at a Starlink station supporting Ukraine's military was deliberately set. And in today's back of the brief, the Pentagon is trying to recover F-35 fighter jet parts that were accidentally diverted to Hong Kong and seized by Chinese authorities. Ah, has anyone seen my F-35 parts? I ordered them like a week ago. All right, first, today's afternoon spotlight.

After nearly seven months of war, the US and Iran may finally be discussing a deal that could begin bringing the conflict to an end. Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington would lift its blockade of Iranian ports. According to Reuters, negotiators in New York are exploring a phased arrangement built around those two pressure points. Iran would allow commercial shipping to move through Hormuz again, while the US would begin easing the blockade that has choked off Iranian oil exports and put severe pressure on the regime's economy.

Of course, the talks are still preliminary, and of course, we've seen plenty of starts in supposed negotiations over the past several months.

Now, the biggest complication is that the same leverage that brought both sides back to the table or close to the table is also what neither side wants to give up first. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of its most powerful weapons. Closing the waterway has allowed Tehran to put pressure not just on the US., but on global oil markets and America's allies in the Gulf. For Washington, the blockade of Iranian ports has become its strongest economic weapon against Iran. We've spent weeks documenting what that pressure has done. Iranian oil exports have been squeezed, overland alternatives have run into bottlenecks, and Washington has continued adding sanctions aimed at cutting Tehran off from additional sources of revenue and trade. Now, for the first time, those two pieces are reportedly being discussed together as part of a potential deal.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that one possible first step would be relatively straightforward, reopen Hormuz, lift the blockade, and potentially give Iran access to some of its frozen assets.

After that, the two sides could move on theoretically to harder issues in later stages. Now that's the theory. So the US gets the straight back to what it was prior to the conflict, while the Iranian regime remains firmly in control, gets economic relief, and potential access to its frozen assets.

I'm sure there's a win in there somewhere for the US administration, but it's a bit hard to see.

Tehran had been pushing for ships using the Strait of Hormuz to pay transit fees, something the Gulf states rejected. Now, according to regional sources cited by Reuters, Iran may be willing to move that demand out of the main agreement and into a side arrangement instead, because getting the blockade lifted appears to have become the more urgent priority. That does not mean that Tehran is giving up its broader claims over the Strait. Iran still wants to preserve what it describes as administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states remain strongly opposed, of course, to any arrangement that would allow the regime to turn the waterway into a permanent instrument of pressure.

But the fact that Iran may be willing to possibly defer one of its demands is in itself notable. It suggests that at least in part, perhaps, the economic pressure is beginning to shape the negotiations. Or, conversely, Iran believes that they have dragged this conflict out long enough that they can now extract some concessions from the US. The regime still appears to believe that it's negotiating for a position of strength, despite the undeniable pressure that its economy is under. The White House, as it has on numerous occasions, is saying that Iran is desperate for a deal, that President Trump holds the stronger hand, and that the blockade has helped drive the Iranian economy toward collapse.