Self-Driving Cars Might Finally Be For Real This Time

Joe Weisenthal (0:10)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:14)

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:16)

Tracy, remember the hype about self-driving cars from like 10 years ago? Like that really died out.

Tracy Alloway (0:21)

Can I tell you something? I'm still holding out hope for the self-driving cars, because I can't drive.

And it was kind of acceptable when I was in my 20s, but now it's starting to get a little embarrassing. So I really need the self-driving cars to become viable options.

Joe Weisenthal (0:40)

So when we go on the road and do podcasts in another city.

Tracy Alloway (0:44)

You have to drive.

Joe Weisenthal (0:45)

I have to drive all the time, don't I? Because I think I've asked you, I'm like, oh, Tracy, you're renting a car, and then you sort of change the discussion or you bring up something else. You're like, oh, I think there's Ubers in that town or something, but this is the real reason, isn't it?

Tracy Alloway (0:57)

Well, I mean, there are Ubers everywhere. You know what we should talk about, whether or not Ubers have decreased enthusiasm for self-driving cars as a business model.

Joe Weisenthal (1:05)

Remember when people used to say Uber would never make any money if they still had to pay humans, but now they're making a little money.

Tracy Alloway (1:11)

It's true.

Joe Weisenthal (1:12)

But I do think generally, when people talk about tech that didn't live up to the hype, and you see it now with chatbots and stuff like that and whether they're really gonna change, people go back to the self-driving cars. To me, that's the sort of quintessential example of the modern times, maybe 3D printing. You don't really hear that much about it.

Tracy Alloway (1:31)

Yes, but don't you also find it weird to imagine a future in two or 300 years where there wouldn't be self-driving cars? It feels at once both inevitable and hype, if that makes sense, like an artificiality.

Joe Weisenthal (1:45)

No, I mean, I definitely agree. 200, 300 years, that's a long time, like 50 years from now, I've kind of-

Tracy Alloway (1:53)

You think 50 years from now?

Joe Weisenthal (1:55)

Well, so this is the question, which is like my, it is not an area I know that well, but my impression is it's like sort of classic thing where tech got us like 95% of the way there, and then there are some edge cases that make self-driving cars difficult. I don't know exactly what they are, but then getting that last 5% or whatever is so hard that it renders the whole thing very difficult. And that whatever that last percent is, is the difference between the tech being like, wow, versus actually changing the world.

Tracy Alloway (2:24)

We are so close and yet so far.

Joe Weisenthal (2:26)

Yeah, it's one of those things. And I feel like, again, with Chatbots and some of these other current artificial intelligence applications, it comes back to this question of like, yes, it's really great and it sort of blows your mind, but are these hallucinations another thing? And like, if it's not 99.9-

Tracy Alloway (2:41)

100% reliable, yeah.

Joe Weisenthal (2:42)

If it's not 100% reliable, does that mean it really won't be as disruptive as people expect?

Tracy Alloway (2:46)

Well, the other thing I'm curious about is whether or not that sort of last 5% that you're describing, whether that's on the software or the hardware side. Because I think that has implications for, if we do make huge leaps in artificial intelligence, maybe that solves a software problem, but maybe the issue is actually that the sensors are too basic or too expensive, that sort of thing.

Joe Weisenthal (3:10)

I don't know the answer to any of these questions. The one other thing I'll say too is like, there is a lot of car talk these days. We've been doing more and more on the podcast. It's entirely like on the sort of EV charging side. And how are EVs and how EV production and batteries like, how are they going to reshape the industry or Chinese exports? How are they gonna reshape the industry?

It does not seem like, again, 10 years ago, the big question was like, who's ahead in the self-driving car race? Google, GM or Ford.

There was much less talk then about EVs as the big disruptor.

Tracy Alloway (3:41)

Right. So I think it is time for a checkup, right? On what's going on with self-driving cars.

Joe Weisenthal (3:46)

It is time for a checkup. And our guest says they're back, that they're happening for real. And I do believe him to some extent because I follow some people who live in San Francisco and they're tweeting about it more and more that they see them on the road.