Russia May Soon Order A Massive Mobilization & Trump's F-35 Reversal

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Have you ever wondered what dictators do in their spare time? Well, I'm sure you have. Come on. That's what we're exploring in this week's subscriber exclusive episode of the PDB dictator files. From Kim Jong-il's obsession with Hollywood to Saddam Hussein's career as a novelist, it's a fascinating look at how absolute power turns personal hobbies into matters of state. You can listen by going to pdbpremium.com. More on that later, but first, let's get on with the PDB.
It's Wednesday, the 8th of July. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, troubling signs out of Moscow suggest the Kremlin may soon order up another military mobilization, and that is a move that could carry enormous political risks for Vladimir Putin. Later in the show, one of NATO's biggest defense disputes may soon be over as President Trump considers restoring Turkey's access to the F-35.
Plus, as Syria tries to convince the world that it's turning the page after Assad, a pair of bombings in Damascus threatens to pull the country right back into chaos. And in today's Back of the Brief, the Pentagon appears to be reversing course as a US troop deployment to Poland that was previously cancelled is suddenly now back on track. But first, today's PDB spotlight.
Vladimir Putin may be preparing to make one of the riskiest political decisions of his presidency. According to multiple reports from independent Russian media, the Kremlin is actively discussing another large scale military mobilization as early as this October after elections to Russia's state Duma. No final decision has reportedly been made, but if it happens, it would mark the first nationwide call-up of reservists since September of 2022, and it would signal that Russia's current system for replacing battlefield losses is beginning to break down.
That's because for nearly five years, Putin has managed to wage a massive war in Ukraine, while asking remarkably little of the average Russian citizen, particularly those in the major urban centers. Yes, of course, the Russian economy has been transformed by the conflict, and defense spending has soared, and sanctions have reshaped daily life, and hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. But for many Russians living far from the front, life has continued with surprising normalcy. And that wasn't an accident. Since launching his full-scale invasion in 2022, Putin and the Kremlin have worked hard to keep the war at arm's length from much of the population. Rather than ordering another nationwide draft, Moscow has relied on generous enlistment bonuses, high military salaries, prison recruitment, and volunteers from poorer regions of the country to replenish its ranks. The strategy has allowed Putin to continue the war without forcing millions of Russian families to confront it directly. Now, however, there are growing signs that the strategy may be reaching its limits. Multiple reports indicate that the flow of volunteers has slowed significantly over the past year, despite increasingly generous financial incentives. Independent Russian outlet Medusa, citing sources inside regional governments and Russia's presidential administration, reports that recruiting contract soldiers has become substantially more difficult, with some military units struggling to meet their monthly quotas. The quality of recruits also appears to be declining. According to those reports, recruiters are relying more heavily on prison inmates, older men, and individuals with significant health problems simply to fill vacancies. Officials are also reportedly advertising support roles, like drivers and construction workers, only for recruits to sign standard military contracts that could ultimately send them straight to the front.
There are also signs that recruitment tactics are becoming more aggressive. Radio Free Europe recently documented allegations from multiple Russian cities that military age men are being detained off the street, taken to recruitment offices and pressured into signing contracts for military service. Russian authorities deny those accusations, but the reports suggest the Kremlin is finding it increasingly difficult to persuade enough Russians to volunteer.
All of this points to the same conclusion. Russia's manpower pipeline is under growing strain, and that is a serious problem for the Kremlin. Russia continues to inch forward in eastern Ukraine, but those gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Western intelligence estimates put Russian casualties well into the hundreds of thousands killed, and well over a million total casualties since the invasion began. At the same time, Ukraine's expanding drone campaign has made the battlefield increasingly lethal, destroying equipment, disrupting logistics, and inflicting losses far behind the front lines. To sustain the war at its current pace, Russia needs a constant stream of replacement troops. If volunteers are no longer enough, the Kremlin may conclude that it has little choice but to compel more Russians into uniform.