Robert Pape Exposes How We Underestimated Iran... | DSH #2070

**Robert Pape** (0:00)
This was always going to be this long protracted war, and we're not over, it's not over. Iran is the biggest status dude we've gone up against, put in a little more ordinary language, since World War II, is that we apparently underrated and didn't take seriously their drone capability. We apparently knew they had drones, but we didn't understand they might use their drones.

**Sean Kelly** (0:30)
Okay, guys, we got Professor Robert Pape here today. We're filming this on June 9th. How's it going, Professor?

**Robert Pape** (0:36)
It's going great, Sean. Nice to meet you.

**Sean Kelly** (0:38)
Yeah, nice to meet you too. A lot of developments lately, right?

**Robert Pape** (0:42)
Yeah, it's actually just another day at the office, so I've been giving up for... It's hard to believe. I think we're at day 102 of the war, 102

**Sean Kelly** (0:53)
Wow.

**Robert Pape** (0:55)
It's stunning, isn't it? And this is no end in sight, Sean.

**Sean Kelly** (1:00)
When this war first started, did you think it would end up this many days?

**Robert Pape** (1:05)
I did. I did. And I'm not just saying that. So as you know, and some of your listeners already know, I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for quite some times, as part of a background, done it for decades, actually. And for me, the war didn't start on February 28 It started a year ago when we bombed Fordow. So I'm glad to unpack it, but that was always the beginning bombing, US bombing Fordow. And then that led in all this modeling to about a year later, maybe two years later, turned out to be only eight months later, that would take us back to regime change bombing. And so starting in last year, literally almost a year ago right now, I mean, 51 weeks ago, Sean, it's kind of hard to believe, is when we bombed Fordow.
And that's, I published a piece in Foreign Affairs, so people can go check it out. You'll see I'm not just saying this after the fact, and I'm expecting this was gonna go on, but I wasn't expecting we were gonna go immediately to regime change bombing in like last July.
No, this was always gonna be about a year, maybe two. Turned out to be quicker than a year. It turned out to be eight months. And so this was always gonna be this long protracted war, and we're not over it. It's not over all the bad things that we've talked about. No, we're not out of the woods on any of those. I'm sorry. Everybody wants everything to be over. That's just not the way my 20 years of studying this has looked, and we're pretty much on track.

**Sean Kelly** (2:44)
So what do you think we are? We're in the early stages still of this war?

**Robert Pape** (2:48)
No, I would say that we're past the, if you liken it to chess, we're through the opening. We're not in the midgame. Think of it as the middle game. And those who are listening, who know about chess, the middle game is everything.
Everything in chess is everything. There's so much tinge on every move, right? That's why we study every individual move. But that said, the middle game is that long part of the chess game, 90-something percent of the time. And so you end up having a lot of change, a lot of dynamics, and we are in a middle game. Iran won the opening. That's for sure.
Iran is now pressing its advantage in the midgame. It's not looking for a draw. So it's not like people have been expecting, oh, sure, Iran will just throw up its hands.
The US blockade, it's kind of like a set of pawns. I hope you don't mind me expanding. I haven't done this on any other podcast, so I just want to highlight this a little bit. It's like setting up a set of pawns here, and then the other side is just going to crumble. No, that's not what happens in chess. That's not what's happening here. Now, of course, this is a lot more serious than a game of chess. A lot more emotion involved, politics involved, harm involved. So I don't want to make too light of this, but the fact of the matter is, it's better to think about this as being in the middle game where Ron is moving from survival to power, survival to ambition. And that is going to take some time to play out because the other side is not completely defeated. So United States, of course, remains very powerful. Israel remains very powerful. The Gulf Allies remain well. Gee, which side are they going on here? So this is what things look like in the middle game in chess. And that's where we are today, Sean.