Regional Ballot Measure is a $14 Billion Bet on Bay Area Transit

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Alexis Madrigal (1:08)

Welcome to Forum. I'm Alexis Madrigal. I should probably just say this. The urban think tank SPUR estimates that if this new transit tax measure that we're talking about this morning doesn't pass, commutes across the Bay Bridge by car could increase by 30 to 40 minutes. Getting through the Caldecott Tunnel could take 20 to 27 more minutes, meaning if you live there in Walnut Creek, my word, you might be looking at an extra hour on top of what was already a grueling commute.

That's because the way people get around the Bay Area is a combination of modes. Most prominently, people driving in their cars, but transit takes pressure off the roads. If the transit measure fails, that'll put more people on the roads and you'll get more traffic. That won't be the only effect, as we'll also hear today.

On the other side of it, the regional transit measure would push sales tax over 11% in some jurisdictions, in, for example, Alameda County.

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (2:05)

Yikes.

Alexis Madrigal (2:07)

Here to talk with us about the bind our local leaders are in, we're joined by Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman, Transit Reporter here at KQED. Welcome.

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (2:14)

Hey, Alexis.

Alexis Madrigal (2:15)

We've got Laura Tolkoff, Transportation Policy Director with SPUR. Welcome.

Laura Tolkoff (2:20)

Good morning.

Alexis Madrigal (2:22)

We've got Libby Schaaf, President and CEO of the Bay Area Council, and also importantly for the show, former Mayor of Oakland. Welcome.

Libby Schaaf (2:29)

Good morning.

Alexis Madrigal (2:30)

And we've got Murphy McCauley, Board Member with AC Transit. Welcome, Murphy.

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (2:35)

Good morning.

Alexis Madrigal (2:37)

All right. Azul, why don't you set us up here? You know, in these post-pandemic years, it feels like our transit systems have been under so much pressure. Tell us what this regional transit measure is and what it helps to do.

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (2:52)

Yeah. Well, the regional transit measure, as you said, would create a sales tax in five Bay Area counties. That's Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and San Francisco. And the idea is basically to fund transit long-term, basically to give transit sort of a new business model, if you will.

That's because post-pandemic ridership still hasn't rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Let's talk about BART, for instance, everyone likes to talk about BART. Around 50% is currently where BART's at for average weekday ridership. At the same time, operating expenses have continued to rise, so that's really where transit agencies are in the sort of bind, where costs are going up and their previous business model is no longer working.

Alexis Madrigal (3:40)

What are the big costs that are going up?

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (3:44)

It's operating expenses, I mean, it's labor. Typically, every year, labor expenses such as employee salaries, benefits, retirement, I think those are the things that we're seeing really driving up costs at transit agencies.

Alexis Madrigal (3:59)

Yeah, if you look at the numbers for BART say, because they have retiree pensions, they've got to pay the labor costs for total labor costs. People working now and people who are retired have gone up quite substantially.

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (4:14)

Yeah, I mean, the operating expenses are set to rise over the next five fiscal years consistently.

Alexis Madrigal (4:21)

So which are the transit agencies that would then benefit from this RTM measure and how are they dividing the pie up?

Azul Dahlstrom-Eckman (4:28)

Yeah, so there's four main agencies that would, you know, sort of get the lion's share of the revenue. That's BART, AC Transit, Caltrain and the SFMTA, which runs Muni.

They collectively are responsible for about 80% of all transit ridership in the region, but some other agencies would also get Muni. We're talking about the VTA, we're talking about smaller East Bay transit operators, such as LAVTA and Union City Transit, as well as Golden Gate Transit, San Francisco Bay Ferry. And I think that's sort of, to get this sort of regional support that this measure needs, right? So it's a five county measure, so you need Santa Clara County's buy-in. So VTA, you know, has to get a little money as well. And then there's, you know, the county transit agencies are also getting money for that. And the amount of money that goes to each agency differs based on, you know, so if X amount collected in Santa Clara County will go to VTA, you know, obviously more money will go to VTA. Alameda County, you know, more money will go to BART. San Francisco, more money will go to Muni. Got it.