"Reform is Screwed"- Dan Hodges

Konstantin Kisin (0:02)

What is your assessment of reform?

Dan Hodges (0:03)

They're screwed. The polls are overestimating reform's support. There is absolutely no way, in my view, it can get from where it is now to actually being potentially a party of government. There is now a clear perception within reform that Nigel Farage is coming to the end of his leadership.

Konstantin Kisin (0:19)

So you think he will leave soon?

Dan Hodges (0:20)

I do, yes.

That the sanctions are an Israeli settlement. His defense of welfare is part of a broader strategy of shoring up his left flank. And that with the split on the right, that will be enough to win him a majority. I am pretty certain that what Andy Burnham is currently doing is preparing for a snap general election at some point next year.

Francis Foster (0:45)

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Konstantin Kisin (1:07)

Dan Hodges, welcome to TRIGGERnometry.

Dan Hodges (1:08)

Thank you.

Konstantin Kisin (1:09)

Before we get into the conversation, tell us a little bit about your background and your story and how you come to be sitting here today with us.

Dan Hodges (1:16)

Yeah, well, I used to work for the Labour Party. I mean, I used to, to be honest, I used to work for my mother and she was a Labour MP, so I worked for her for five years in the 1997 election. Then I went off, did the PR consultancy circuit for a bit, and then somehow, I'm not entirely sure how, stumbled into journalism and political commentary, which is how I ended up here.

Konstantin Kisin (1:44)

Yeah, and you're one of the people I see in the media being very upbeat and positive about Andy Burnham, which is why it would be interesting for us to chat with you. You're frowning a bit. Is that unfair?

Dan Hodges (1:56)

No, no, no. I mean, I think it's being upbeat. I mean, I think the last time we spoke, I think it was before he became Prime Minister, wasn't he? I think Keir Star announced it.

Konstantin Kisin (2:07)

It was very clear that he was about to be, and we had you on with Julie.

Dan Hodges (2:12)

We had the discussion and obviously at the time, there were already predictions of imminent doom and gloom and disaster for Andy Burnham. I just posed a little bit of a corrective saying, I wasn't entirely sure that in the short term, his premiership was going to collapse quite precipitously as maybe Julia thought at the time.

That's basically my analysis. I mean, I was saying before that one of the things in relation to Andy Burnham, he's the first prime minister who I know, who I kind of knew him properly before he became prime minister, which as I said, we used to work together at the House of Commons. And as I said, that has the benefit of making me feel very old and also a great underachiever. So there is a, you know, and I've been completely honest about it. As a result of that, I quite like him. I hope he does well.

Konstantin Kisin (3:04)

So what's he like then?

Dan Hodges (3:06)

He's broadly what you see, actually. There's not, you know, there's no sort of great, sort of hidden side to Andy. I mean, a lot of people I know are sort of talking about, oh, you know, the sort of the northern, I'm from up north, sort of shtick is starting to grate. It's not a shtick, it's who he actually is.

Konstantin Kisin (3:30)

He really is a northern who bangs on about being northern.

Dan Hodges (3:32)

That is the type. He really is from up north. And that very much shapes his political outlook.

He's Amy Bull. He's someone you can have a chat with. But also, I think this is one of the misconceptions there's been about him. And I think we touched on that at the time. There was this whole narrative, oh, wait till he comes into Westminster, he's going to find out being prime minister is going to be very different from being mayor of Manchester. But the point was, as I said, we worked together for the best part of five years. He's been in politics basically all his life, and he's a very, very political creature. So this idea of some sort of baby in the woods who'd come into Westminster and go, oh my God, what's going on here?