Ray Dalio on the Five Forces That Make This a Historical Moment

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

Joe Weisenthal (0:18)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:22)

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:24)

So Tracy, since we've been doing the podcast for 10 years, trying to talk to some of the big thinkers, right? Some of the people who have a little bit of a perspective on how the world's changed. We say how the world's changed in 10 years, but that's a little bit arbitrary. How the world's changed, and maybe what the next 10 years or 50 years are going to be like.

Tracy Alloway (0:44)

Big thinkers thinking big thoughts.

Joe Weisenthal (0:46)

Zooming out a little bit. And I think everyone sort of is these days. I mean, it happens to be that we're sort of celebrating our anniversary or birthday or whatever it is, but it's just, I think it's just in the air. You know, like everyone, I guess people are always trying to think big, but there's something in the air right now where everyone is trying to grapple with pretty evident change that is afoot.

Tracy Alloway (1:07)

Well, here's the thing. The big story in markets is AI, right? And whether or not it's in a bubble. And AI is a story that is not just about finance and markets. It's a story that like touches multiple things. So you have, it's a cultural, social and political story. So you have people talking literally about how AI is going to change the world. It's going to change art. It's going to change music, movies, people as well, right? So some people are going to lose their jobs. Some people are going to get rich. People talk about it in this existential way, both for countries and companies, to your point. And if you don't win in the AI race, then you are literally dead, right?

Joe Weisenthal (1:50)

Or part of the permanent underclass, whatever people say. And then I think beyond AI, even if we didn't have this boom that really started in late 2022, even if that weren't going on, there'd be all these other big questions related to technological competition, because we already talked about that, particularly with China. There would be all the concerns about the size of the debt. There would be all the concerns about demographics and so forth, and the perhaps strain that changes in demographics are going to put on the existing labor force. So yes, you have all of these things going on, big picture questions, then layer into the AI question. And I just feel like people right now, yes, we all feel it, we're consumed by these, like sort of forward uncertainty, or questions about the integrity of elections and democracy and all of these things. This sort of, we're at this clearing of the woods where we don't know which direction we're going to go.

Tracy Alloway (2:38)

You know who's very good at synthesizing major forces going on in the world.

Joe Weisenthal (2:43)

Well, we do indeed have the perfect guest, someone who many people turn to and who obviously has an incredible track record of talking about things, both in the big picture and shorter cycles. We are going to be speaking with Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater. He ran it for 50 years. That's kind of unbelievable.

Tracy Alloway (3:01)

We've seen many market cycles.

Joe Weisenthal (3:03)

We're proud of 10 years of doing a podcast. Fifty years of running what became the world's biggest hedge fund is an orders of magnitude, more impressive accomplishment. So Ray, thrilled that you're in here in studio with us, thrilled that you're taking the time to chat with us once again. Appreciate you coming back on Odd Lots.

Ray Dalio (3:22)

Thank you. Yeah. Congratulations on 10 years ago, starting this thing. I think of how the world has changed in those 10 years. And you want to talk macro. Listen, I think you're-

Joe Weisenthal (3:37)

You've heard a thing or two about it.

Ray Dalio (3:38)

Yeah, I am global macro. Global macro. And AI is just a part of that. It's a small thing in relationship to the whole global macro.

Joe Weisenthal (3:51)

I know we'll get into all of this thing, but again, like it feels like something we're patting ourselves on the back of a 10 years podcast. 50 years of running a hedge fund. Like I say it, it doesn't even seem real that that could even be possible. I mean, I know it sounds crazy, but-

Ray Dalio (4:05)

Yeah, what a joy. Oh, it's fantastic. Yeah. You know, I-

Joe Weisenthal (4:10)

Do you have any tips on longevity? Cause we're like, well, we want to be doing this again in 10 years and maybe again-