Q&A: Should the US fight the Houthis & will Merz be forced out?

James Rubin (0:02)

This is a Global Production.

Christiane Amanpour (0:04)

Trump has done this twice now, failed to come to their military rescue, once under direct Iranian attack, and now while they're being aggressed by the Houthis. Saudis apparently tried to warn Trump not to do this war with Iran because they knew that exactly this would be the result, that Iran would turn on them and turn on that whole area. I think Trump does not know how to get out of the Iran part of this.

James Rubin (0:27)

The fact that the United States isn't helping Saudi Arabia as this war puts in jeopardy Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil through the Red Sea, this is going to be a bigger and bigger problem, and they'll remember this.

Christiane Amanpour (0:43)

Hello, everybody.

Welcome to the Q&A episode of The Ex Files with me, Christiane Amanpour in New York on the west side, and Jamie Rubin, I'm going to say this for you, Jamie, all the way on the east side, because we have the UN General Assembly in town, all these world leaders, and you can't get from east to west in any sensible time. So let's get started with all that. Jamie, would you please take the first question?

James Rubin (1:07)

I will read the first question, John, on email. I even try to answer it first. Why is Washington reluctant to support Saudi Arabia in launching a direct military campaign against the Houthis? What does this mean for US-Saudi relations if America is unwilling to act as Saudi Arabia's security guarantor? And could we see Saudi Arabia looking to Europe or China for support instead? This is a very good question by John on email because it's a very, very difficult subject. Look, the United States had a mini war against the Houthis last year. It didn't really work out all that well, but it sort of came to a conclusion in which the Houthis said they weren't going to attack American ships anymore and only attack Israeli ships.

And now they're saying they're only going to attack Saudi ships but not American ships, so the president is reluctant to restart the war. Saudi Arabia will remember this because remember Saudi Arabia remembered it when Obama didn't defend them during an attack on one of their oil facilities by Iran, I believe, back in the day.

Christiane Amanpour (2:11)

You sure that wasn't Trump? I think it was Trump in 2017, 18 The Abqaiq facility.

James Rubin (2:16)

It could have been Trump. You're right. There was one between the UAE and Obama. I should be clear on that. You're absolutely right. But they remember these things. Then the next thing you know, they're best friends again. But I should say that Saudi Arabia refused to participate in one of Trump's operations which was designed to squeeze the Iranians because they felt that would be a mistake and make it harder for oil to be exported. So the US-Saudi, US-UAE, US-Gulf relationships have been thrown asunder by this war. This war has really damaged the confidence that used to exist between the United States and its Gulf friends and allies.

The fact that the United States isn't helping Saudi Arabia, as this war puts in jeopardy Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil through the Red Sea, this is going to be a bigger and bigger problem. I foresee a greater and greater anger on the part of a ruler who's also an authoritarian ruler, MBS, in Saudi Arabia, and they'll remember this. Depends on, of course, how things work out. But right now, the situation is quite grim. Saudi Arabia has to come up with real workarounds to figure out how to get oil out because their pipeline was attacked by an Iraqi militia.

The traditional method of getting it is blocked by the Iran war, and now this workaround through the Red Sea is in jeopardy. So we'll have to see how this plays out.

Christiane Amanpour (3:47)

So Saudi Arabia, you say, will remember this. As I pointed out, Trump has done this twice now, failed to come to their military rescue once under direct Iranian attack on the Abqaiq facility, and now while they're being aggressed by the Houthis. And yet, Saudi Arabia is still giving all sorts of money and investment and this and that.

Trump did, you know, Saudis apparently tried to warn Trump not to do this war with Iran because they knew that exactly this would be the result, that Iran would turn on them and turn on that whole area. So I think Trump does not know how to get out of the Iran part of this and is hesitant to start a whole new front against the Houthis for all the reasons you were saying, Jamie. Personally, in answer to the other question of John's, I really don't think Europe or China are going to help, do you? I mean, you can't see Europe who won't support the US in the war on Iran, are not going to support Saudi Arabia in their thing against the Houthis, which is essentially a pretty rebel force, which has, I mean, it's capable to an extent, but it's not a state actor. What do you think? China is not going to come to Saudi support, are they in this way?