Putin's Own Allies Are Turning Against Him & Israel Makes A Deal With Lebanon

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Friday, the 5th of June. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, after years of war in Ukraine, some of the people who helped Vladimir Putin stay in power are beginning to question where it's all heading. It only took them four years to do that. We'll explain why cracks are emerging inside Russia's ruling elite. Later in the show, a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government hinges on the participation of Hezbollah. Now, the Iranian proxy has already said they will not abide by the agreement. Ceasefires just are not what they used to be. Plus, we'll take a look at why your next LinkedIn message might not be from a recruiter. It could be from Chinese intelligence. And in today's Back of the Brief, President Trump expands sanctions on Cuba in what could be the biggest crackdown on the regime in decades. But first, today's PDB spotlight.
For years, one of the biggest misconceptions about Vladimir Putin's rule has been the idea that his power rests primarily on the support of ordinary Russians. Public opinion certainly matters, but Putin's grip on power has always depended on something else. His ability to manage a small circle of wealthy oligarchs, security officials, military leaders and political insiders who form the backbone of the Russian state. And increasingly, there are signs that some of those elites are beginning to question whether the war in Ukraine is still worth the cost. Earlier this week, we brought you reporting that many of Russia's oligarchs are no longer feeling safe. The Kremlin has expanded its campaign of asset seizures, taking greater control over private businesses and signaling that even some of the country's wealthiest figures are not beyond the state's reach. Now another warning sign is emerging. According to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, influential voices from across the Russian establishment, including some longtime supporters of the war, are publicly questioning whether Moscow can actually achieve the victory that Putin promised. What's particularly notable is who's making these arguments. These are not liberal opposition figures. They're not anti-war activists. In several cases, they're individuals who strongly backed the invasion. One example is Oleg Tsaryov. He's a former Ukrainian politician who fled to Russia in 2014 and was once viewed as a potential leader of a Kremlin-backed government had Russian forces successfully captured Kiev in the opening days of the war.
Last month, Tsaryov warned that Russian officials and propagandists had convinced themselves that victory was inevitable, creating what he described as an alternative reality detached from the facts on the ground. Another prominent hardliner, Alexei Tchardayev, a former Kremlin official and military analyst argued that Russia's current course is leading not simply to a lack of victory, but potentially to outright defeat. Meanwhile, Russian foreign policy scholar Vasily Kashin has gone even further, arguing that one of Putin's original objectives, the installation of a friendly government in Kiev, is no longer realistic after years of brutal fighting.
That assessment strikes at the heart of the Kremlin's original rationale for launching the invasion in the first place. These concerns are emerging as Russia enters its fifth year of war without achieving a decisive breakthrough. While Russian forces continue to grind forward in some areas, Ukraine is increasingly demonstrated an ability to strike deep inside Russian lines. Long-range drone attacks have targeted infrastructure throughout Western Russia, including a recent strike near St. Petersburg during one of the country's premier economic gatherings. In occupied parts of Ukraine, reports indicate that Ukrainian drone operations are disrupting Russian logistics networks and fuel deliveries, forcing rationing in some areas. Now, none of this means Russia is on the verge of collapse, but it does suggest that some members of the Russian elite are beginning to see a growing gap between the cost of the war and the likelihood of achieving its original objectives.
The problem for those voices is that Vladimir Putin doesn't appear interested in changing course. In recent days, Russia has instead intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, signaling that the Kremlin remains committed to escalation rather than compromise. And that highlights a broader reality about Putin's system. The war is no longer just a military campaign. It's become a central pillar of the regime itself. The conflict justifies political repression, fuels state spending, and reinforces the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is locked in an existential struggle with the West. Which means that even as some oligarchs grow nervous and some traditional hawks begin questioning the path forward, ending the war may present risks to Putin that are just as serious as continuing it.