**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Mike Baker** (0:30)
Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, have you ever asked yourself, what makes a dictatorship survive for generations? I'm sure you've asked that question. You can find out though in the latest episode of the PDB Dictator Files. This week, we explore what's called Juche. It's the ideology that transformed North Korea into one of the world's most secretive and enduring, as opposed to endearing regimes. Listen now exclusively for premium members of The Presidents Daily Brief at pdbpremium.com.
And now, as they say, on with the show.
It's Wednesday, the 24th of June. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Vladimir Putin says Russia is ready for peace talks with Ukraine based on a framework first discussed in 2022 Nah, he wants to pretend it's still 2022 when Russia held all the cards. We'll examine whether Moscow is still negotiating from the same position of strength it enjoyed four years ago. And, spoiler alert, it's not. Later in the show, China unveils a strange new tool of the South China Sea, a floating platform near a disputed atoll. We'll explain what it is and why it has regional rivals on edge. Plus, Russia is accused of attacking three foreign-flagged cargo ships in the Black Sea, killing an Egyptian sailor. We'll explain what happened. And in today's Back of the Brief, the Trump administration expands its pressure campaign against Cuba, targeting five entities and a member of the Castro family with new sanctions. But first, today's PDB spotlight.
Russian President Putin now says Moscow is ready to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine. Speaking during a government meeting on Tuesday, Putin declared that Russia remains willing to negotiate on the basis of the agreements discussed during peace talks that were held in Istanbul all the way back in 2022
At first glance, that may not sound particularly remarkable. Moscow has periodically claimed to be open to negotiations throughout the war. But Putin's specific reference to the Istanbul framework raises an important point. Is Russia in as strong a position today as it was when those talks first took place and Putin made his maximalist demands? To answer that question, it's worth revisiting what was happening in the spring of 2022
The war was only a few months old. Russian forces occupied large portions of Ukrainian territory. Kiev had not yet launched its successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Khorasan. Ukraine's military was still heavily dependent on Western aid, and few, if any, believed that it could strike meaningful targets deep inside Russia. The draft framework discussed in Istanbul reflected those realities. Reports at the time suggested Ukraine would have accepted neutrality, abandoned its pursuit of NATO membership, and agreed to limits on foreign military deployments. In exchange, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from several major powers, while negotiations continued over the status of disputed territories. Of course, those talks ultimately collapsed. The war continued, and four years later, Putin says he wants to pick up where the two sides left off. Now, on one level, the Russian leader's position makes sense. Well, at least the position makes sense if you're Putin. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia's economy has not collapsed. Despite suffering staggering casualties, the latest US estimate is around 40,000 per month. Russian forces still occupy Crimea and large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine. And while battlefield gains have been slow and costly, Moscow continues to make incremental, painfully costly advances in parts of the Donbass.
Putin can point to a map and argue that after four years of his war, Russia still holds the territory that it fought to seize, which, of course, really is hardly a point of pride for the Kremlin, considering that they expected to be dancing in Kiev days or weeks after they launched their invasion.
Now, that's only part of the story. The Russia of 2026 also faces challenges that barely existed when those Istanbul talks took place. Over the past year, Ukraine has dramatically expanded its long-range drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. According to recent reports, attacks on Russian refineries have doubled since the start of this year alone. The consequences are beginning to show. Regions across Russia have reported fuel shortages, restrictions on fuel sales, rising prices, and long lines at filling stations. Moscow has already restricted gasoline exports, but senior Russian officials are reportedly considering a ban on diesel exports as well. Oil companies have delayed maintenance schedules, tapped emergency reserves, and scrambled to redirect supplies to the domestic market.
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