Preparing for an AI tax crisis

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
At Sentry, understanding starts with taking a seat, talking face-to-face, getting to know your business firsthand, diving into details, seeing risk from every angle, becoming experts in your business, and crafting coverage that really makes a difference. So save us a seat, we've got work to do. Property and casualty coverages are underwritten by a member of the Sentry Insurance Group, Stevens Point, Wisconsin. For a complete listing of companies, visit sentry.com. Policies, coverages, benefits and discounts are not available in all states. See policy for complete coverage details.

**Amy Scott** (0:32)
It's late summer, which means some very important people in the economy are headed to Jackson Hole. We'll tell you what that means for the rest of us. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In Denver, I'm Amy Scott, in for Kai Rizdal. It's Tuesday, August 25th. Good to have you with us.
Central bankers from around the world are heading to the mountains of Wyoming later this week for the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. And the main event is going to be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday. The Fed has often used the keynote address at these events as a way to forecast its longer term plans, how officials are thinking about the economy, and their approach to interest rate policy. That said, we've talked a lot on this program about how Warsh is kind of a closed book when it comes to forecasting any of the Fed's plans. Marketplace's Justin Ho has more on what to expect.

**Justin Ho** (1:41)
Economists certainly want to hear from Kevin Warsh on a lot of topics. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, says he wants some clarity on how the Fed's thinking about the economy.

**David Kelly** (1:52)
How they're thinking about a slowly declining inflation rate, how are they thinking about overall economic growth and the risks on both sides, and ultimately whether they're okay with the level of interest rates. I'd like to hear that.

**Justin Ho** (2:04)
But Kelly says what he'd like and what he expects are two different things.

**David Kelly** (2:08)
As an economist, we would like a big slice of cake, but if we don't get a slice of cake, we will look carefully for any crumbs.

**Justin Ho** (2:14)
There could be some crumbs on Friday. Carola Binder is an economics professor at UT Austin. She's hoping that Chairman Warsh will talk more about some task forces he created earlier this year on inflation, labor markets, and how the Fed measures all that.

**Carola Binder** (2:29)
One of the task forces is devoted to data. It's supposed to, quote, improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments.

**Justin Ho** (2:40)
Chairman Warsh has said that he thinks the Fed should rely more on private sector data instead of government reports. So Binder says she'd like to know more.

**Carola Binder** (2:48)
When we're trying to think about what the Fed might do next, it's important to know which of those measures do they think are useful.

**Justin Ho** (2:57)
The speech could also give us a better sense of who Kevin Warsh is. Claudia Somm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, says she went back and looked at the first Jackson-Hull speeches that previous Fed chairs made.

**Claudia Somm** (3:08)
So Ben Bernanke had the very economic history lens, Janet Yellen deep dive on the labor market, Jay Powell talked about risk management. Those weren't just topics, they're also their approach to being a Fed chair.

**Justin Ho** (3:22)
Somm says Warsh could give us something similar. She says it doesn't have to be about the Fed's plans, it could just be about why he's held interest rates steady so far.

**Claudia Somm** (3:30)
It's like these are decisions the Fed has made as he has been chair. Just talk to us about it. Why are you doing that? What date are you looking at? What are you thinking through?

**Justin Ho** (3:39)
Somm says that might not be the speech we get, but it's the speech we deserve. I'm Justin Ho from Marketplace.

**Amy Scott** (3:46)
Wall Street shrugged off the latest salvo in the US-Canada trade war. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.
Two years ago next month, Hurricane Helene struck the East Coast, bringing devastation to many states, including North Carolina, where it was the most destructive natural disaster to date. That's how I met Jessie Dean. She's the founder and CEO of Asheville Tea Company, located in Asheville, North Carolina, in the western Blue Ridge Mountains. Her original building was swept away in the flooding from Helene, and we've been following her recovery ever since. Jessie, good to talk with you again.