Pollster Frank Luntz Talks Midterms

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

Joe Mathieu (0:07)

We bring you back to the Republican National Convention in Dallas just a couple of weeks ago, when the president asked voters this question.

SPEAKER_3 (0:16)

I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot.

If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000, it will be called the Trump Dividend. We'll call it the Trump Dividend.

Joe Mathieu (0:35)

I almost forgot about the $5,000 checks. That hasn't been mentioned all week, has it?

It's a great pleasure always to spend time with Frank Luntz, and I'm glad to say he's in town and with us at this important moment. Of course, the force behind FIL Inc., where he is the CEO and a long-time celebrity pollster. Can I call you that? Frank Luntz, it's good to see you. Welcome back.

Frank Luntz (0:55)

I'm embarrassed.

Joe Mathieu (0:56)

Well, listen.

Frank Luntz (0:56)

Because we have to get it right in the end, and I know how my voice sounds. I know how I look, and it's a really important time for the country. And I'm glad that you showed that clip, because I'm not sure if I was the president, I would have said I'm on the ballot.

Joe Mathieu (1:14)

Will people pretend as he asked them to?

Frank Luntz (1:17)

If they do, it's not going to be good for him. His numbers are at the lowest they've been since he was elected president.

That even some people on the Republican side are wondering if this is the direction that they want. And I look at the issues, the challenges of affordability, of national security, of where we are as a country.

Joe Mathieu (2:13)

In the corrosion, in this case of Republican polling, do you believe what we're seeing and hearing?

Frank Luntz (2:18)

I see it wherever I go.

Joe Mathieu (2:20)

How's it been so fast?

Frank Luntz (2:22)

I hear it because the public, at a certain point, after Labor Day, there's something that we talked about on your show, that people don't take it seriously until Labor Day. And after Labor Day, they just start to make a decision, both do they want to reward the past, and do they want a different future?

And across America right now, the public is saying, can we get out of this affordability crisis? Can we afford our food, our fuel, if you're a working class? Can we afford housing and health care, if you're upper middle class? And the public is starting to wonder, our national security, are we getting any closer to solving the war between Russia and Ukraine, to solving the dispute between us and Iran?

And even our relationship with China, is it productive? And it seems reasonably okay over the last 48 hours. But in the end, do I want four more years like this? Do I want to pursue the current politics and policy, or do I want to change? And what I'm seeing in places like Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, Kansas, these are places where Republicans usually do well. And the public in those states is saying, I may want to change.

Joe Mathieu (3:44)

Are Republicans, as money is moved around, and we're seeing super PACs move money around, the triage game can be very difficult. Are they giving up on a seat like Michael Watley in North Carolina? Will they give up on Ken Paxton, or is that simply one that cannot be lost?

Frank Luntz (4:01)

Texas is a core of the Republican constituency. But for Republicans, they're looking at a place like New Hampshire, which is an opportunity for them to bring one on the Democratic side over to them. And that's a significant decision.

But you have to look at Texas and wonder if it's really worth investing, not millions, and not tens of millions, but potentially a hundred million, to try to win that seat over. And that's a seat where Donald Trump got in the middle of it and said, do not support the incumbent, support the Republican challenger. So he's going to be on the hot seat for that. And for him, Dallas was a success in that his own voters paid attention, and he has to ensure that they vote. The challenge is how do you get your own voters and those swing voters that moved over to the Republicans in 2024, and gave them both the House and the Senate.

Joe Mathieu (5:02)

If Republicans lose the Senate seat in Texas, knowing that Donald Trump chose not to endorse John Cornyn, knowing that Donald Trump started this war with Iran, that sent diesel to 650, to an all time high.