Poll Me Twice, Shame On Me

**Jon Lovett** (0:21)
Hey, everybody, welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Lovett. I just wrapped a great conversation with Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke who are launching a new podcast with Crooked called Still Counting. It was great to get the gang back together. We talked about Trump's politics and what he would be doing if he were actually trying to help Republicans win the Senate. We talked about the races they're watching, including Michigan and the challenges facing Abdul El-Sayed, and the broader battle between the left and the center left, and how each are trying to define what a Democrat is. We talked about political modeling and what it can tell us and what it can't tell us. And all in all, we had a great time. So do me a favor, subscribe to Still Counting and enjoy the episode. Galen, Clare, Nate, welcome. This is awesome.

**Nate Silver** (1:13)
We feel welcome. Thank you.

**Jon Lovett** (1:14)
We do.

**Galen Druke** (1:14)
Thank you for having us.

**Jon Lovett** (1:16)
This is so exciting. So I'm just, first of all, a huge fan of all of you. And I'm so excited that listening to you now is going to be on Crooked because I get so hooked, especially as we get close to election day. And so as a favor for our listeners, I am going to save, I have several very pedantic questions about modeling.
And I'm just putting them at the end. And if people get there and they don't want to hear those questions and be part of it, that's fine. And so out of respect for the real political sickos, I'm going to keep to politics. And then for the model sickos, I have a little section at the end to talk about statistics and data. But I do want to start with Donald Trump.
Nate, your model has Trump approval at around 39, disapproval at 58 We've joked about Trump trying to lose the midterms, the trade war with Canada, the focus on the ballroom, the dismissal of concerns about data centers, the war with Iran, and hosting a midterm convention to make it all about himself. If Trump were making state-of-the-art decisions based on the data, what would he be doing if he were trying to help Republicans win the midterms? Galen, why don't you take it first?

**Galen Druke** (2:36)
What would Trump be doing if he wanted to win the midterms? He would probably end the war in Iran as quickly as possible. He would undo whatever tariffs still remain after the Supreme Court decision. And he would probably try to elevate people within the Republican Party who aren't him.
You know, we saw during Trump won that whenever he would chill out and step back from the media and put himself a little bit less front and center, his approval rating would go up. You know, I think that like off the top of my head, I'd say that's one thing you can do. But I think there's a bigger challenge this time around, which is that what people are really upset about is the economy. So even when Trump disappears from the media landscape or stops tweeting or stops doing whatever, people don't forget about how pissed off they are about prices and inflation, the war in Iran and things like that. And so that kind of strategy, I think while it may have worked during Trump 1, won't work during Trump 2.0. What he really has to do is make people feel materially differently about their law in life when it comes to inflation, the economy, things like that.

**Clare Malone** (3:41)
So he shouldn't do a photo op at Costco with some gallons of milk or...

**Galen Druke** (3:45)
McDonald's drive a truck.

**Clare Malone** (3:47)
Well, you know what?

**Galen Druke** (3:47)
His shtick about trying to lower the cost of gas at those four gas stations where he purchased or he rented them out to make gas cheaper or whatever. I mean, nice shtick, but if you could just do that for 340 million people, I think that'd be what he'd want to do.

**Nate Silver** (4:03)
Oftentimes, the worst decisions in a presidential term get baked in early.
You know, look, what he should do is collaborate with Elon Musk to build a time machine and undo his decision to go to war in Iran. Quagmires aren't planned. Quagmires are the result of poor planning.

**Clare Malone** (4:22)
But it's also interesting, the baked in thing is so true, because now I'm thinking, what could your advice... There was, like six months ago, all of Trump's advisors were saying, you have to talk about affordability, affordability, and I'm even thinking back to November of 2025, like right before all the war started. And then that means, like, it was like three weeks before Venezuela.