PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 14th, 2026: Can Saudi Arabia Finally Defeat the Houthis? & Ukraine’s Starshield Restrictions

Mike Baker (0:11)

It's Wednesday, the 14th of October. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Iran-backed Yemen Houthis have struck the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's most state-owned oil giant that would be Aramco, as Riyadh presses ahead with a major offensive in Yemen. After more than a decade of fighting, can the Saudis finally defeat the Iran-backed Houthis? Later in the show, Ukraine says new restrictions on SpaceX's military satellite network are disrupting battlefield operations, raising questions about American support, as Vladimir Putin continues hammering the country's power grid. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.

The Houthis have delivered another blow to Saudi Arabia on the home front, this time striking the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state-owned oil giant. Overnight a Houthi ballistic missile hit the company's headquarters in the eastern city of Dajran, damaging the upper floors of a building used by senior executives, including the office of Aramco's chief executive. No casualties were reported. The attack comes as Saudi Arabia presses ahead with a major military offensive in Yemen, aimed at driving the Houthis out of territory that they have controlled for years. And it raises a question that's been hanging over this conflict for more than a decade. Can Saudi Arabia actually defeat the Houthis? Now, on paper, this shouldn't even be a contest. Saudi Arabia has one of the largest and most expensive militaries in the Middle East, equipped with advanced American-made fighter jets, sophisticated air defense systems, and billions of dollars worth of military hardware. Yet despite all those advantages, the kingdom has spent more than a decade struggling to defeat a rebel movement in one of the poorest countries on Earth.

To understand why, well, we have to go back to 2004, when the Iran-backed Houthis launched an insurgency against Yemen's government. Over the following decade, the movement expanded its territorial control, eventually capturing the capital Sanaa in 2014

That prompted Saudi Arabia to intervene the following year, leading a coalition intended to restore Yemen's internationally recognized government. Riyadh expected its overwhelming military superiority to produce a relatively quick victory. Instead, the war dragged on for years. Saudi aircraft bombed Houthi positions, coalition-backed troops launched repeated ground offensives, and the rebels responded with missiles and drones targeting Saudi territory.

A United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 dramatically reduced the fighting, but it never produced a permanent settlement. And now, 11 years after the Saudi intervention began, the kingdom finds itself launching yet another major offensive. So, one asks themselves, why are the Houthis so difficult to defeat? Well, first, there's geography. The Houthis' historical stronghold is in northern Yemen, particularly the mountainous province of Saada, along the southern Saudi border. This is where the movement originated, and its terrain the Houthis know well. Saudi fighter jets can destroy buildings, vehicles and weapons depots, but air power alone cannot occupy territory. That requires infantry moving through rugged mountains and narrow valleys where the defenders have an enormous advantage. Second, the Houthis don't have to defeat Saudi Arabia's military in a conventional battle. They can disperse their fighters, conceal missile launchers, and rely on relatively inexpensive drones that threaten targets inside Saudi Arabia worth billions of dollars. Even when Saudi defenses intercept most incoming weapons, a single successful strike can inflict serious damage. And third, well, there's Iran. The Iranian regime has provided the Houthis with weapons technology, training, intelligence, munitions and other assistance that help transform a local insurgency into a force capable of threatening international shipping and Saudi infrastructure. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and personnel have been on the ground with the Houthis, providing guidance and targeting support. But the Houthis aren't simply an Iranian military unit. They do have their own leadership and local support networks and political ambitions. Cutting off Tehran's assistance would definitely weaken them, but it wouldn't necessarily make them disappear. And there's another problem. The Houthis' opponents have never been particularly unified. Yemen's internationally recognized government, southern separatists, tribal forces and other factions all have different objectives. Fighting a common enemy doesn't mean they agree on what Yemen should look like after the fight. Now, none of these problems are unique to Yemen. They're the same challenges that have frustrated powerful militaries fighting insurgencies around the world, including, of course, the US and Afghanistan. You can overwhelm an enemy with superior firepower and capture territory and kill its commanders. But if the insurgents can retreat, regroup and continue fighting, winning battles doesn't necessarily bring you any closer to winning the war.

However, there are reasons to believe that Riyadh may be better positioned to defeat the Houthis today than they were during the previous campaign.

Earlier this month, tens of thousands of Yemeni government-aligned troops launched a counteroffensive backed by Saudi air power. Their objectives include recapturing territory near the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait and eventually retaking Sana'a.