PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 18th, 2026: The Hardest Part Of The Iran Agreement Starts Now

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Mike Baker** (0:37)
It's Thursday, the 18th of June. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the US-Iran agreement, you remember that? It's now officially signed, and the US has released details of the text. We'll break down what happens next, how markets are reacting, and why the toughest negotiations are ahead. Later in the show, Hamas appears to have rejected the latest US-backed proposal to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza, throwing yet another obstacle in the path of a broader peace plan. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. As we reported this morning, the US and Iran officially signed the agreement, now that has supposedly broadened end to the latest conflict between the two countries, at least for now. The signing took place Wednesday at the Palace of Versailles in France, where Trump was attending the G7 Summit. Now, according to administration officials, Trump signed a hard copy of the Memorandum of Understanding, after which the US transmitted a photograph of the signed document to Tehran. How sophisticated. Who knew we're still using fax machines? Okay, fair enough. They may have sent it by email or TikTok or Instagram. I really don't know. Iranian President Masoud Pesachian then signed the agreement on behalf of the Islamic Republic. The move formally transitions both sides, from military operations to a 60-day period of negotiations. Now, the Memorandum or agreement contains several provisions that have already received significant attention. First off, the US has agreed to issue waivers allowing Iranian oil exports to resume. The agreement also establishes a framework for a massive reconstruction and economic development fund, reportedly worth as much as $300 billion.
How many of those billions are going to end up in the IRGC's pockets? You just have to wonder. In addition, both sides have committed to a 60-day negotiating period intended to address the technical details of a longer-term settlement. Basically, the signed Memorandum represents a 60-day ceasefire, during which the two sides will supposedly discuss all the key issues which currently remain unresolved. Financial markets appear to be reacting positively to the agreement, at least for now. But that is not unusual. As we've mentioned here on the PDB in the past, the energy and financial markets over the past couple of months have shown themselves to be responsive to any positive or optimistic statements or social media posts from the White House. They've been very fickle. Oil prices have continued to decline as traders price in the prospect of Iranian crude returning to global markets and have reduced risk of further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding region. In the US., the national average price for regular gasoline has now slipped below $4 per gallon for the first time since March. That's according to the old American Automobile Association. While it's too early to determine the long-term economic impact of the agreement or ceasefire, energy markets are clearly betting that the immediate crisis has passed.
While the document establishes a ceasefire and lays out several immediate confidence building measures, as mentioned, many of the most difficult issues remain unresolved. That would be almost all of the remaining issues remain unresolved. Questions surrounding Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, long-term sanctions relief, inspection mechanisms and enforcement procedures have largely been deferred to future negotiations. President Trump appeared to acknowledge as much during remarks following the signing ceremony. The President downplayed concerns over Iran's existing uranium stockpile. We don't need that anymore. Arguing that preventing Tehran from ultimately obtaining a nuclear weapon is more important than focusing on the material it currently possesses. Now, if you've been keeping score at home during the course of the conflict, you'll know that that statement is a significant position change. The White House spent the past many weeks focusing on the material that Iran currently possesses.
That position is likely to generate debate among nonproliferation experts, many of whom have argued that Iran's uranium stockpile represents one of the most significant challenges facing any future agreement.
For now, both sides appear eager to demonstrate that they are complying with at least the initial terms of the ceasefire. Vice President JD. Vance said Wednesday that Iran has refrained from attacking commercial shipping for a second consecutive night and that US forces have begun implementing their own commitments under the agreement. Vance said CENTCOM has already allowed more than a dozen vessels to pass through areas that had previously been subject to US military restrictions.