PDB Afternoon Bulletin | July 7th, 2026: Iran Resumes Attacks On Commercial Ships In Hormuz & Russian Forces Attacked In Mali

**Mike Baker** (0:12)
It's Tuesday, the 7th of July. Welcome to The PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, just days after another round of U.S.-Iran indirect negotiations ended without a breakthrough, Iran is accused of launching missile attacks on commercial shipping. It's almost like the regime hasn't read the memorandum of understanding. It's a memorandum of misunderstanding. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Russia's shenanigans in Africa are encountering trouble. We'll take you to Mali, where Tuareg fighters claim they've shot down one of Moscow's attack helicopters. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.
If you were wondering how the latest round of U.S.-Iran negotiations have been going, well, I believe we may have gotten our answer overnight. Less than three weeks after agreeing to supposedly halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a supposed memorandum of understanding with the US., Iran continues to behave as if they control the waterway. Late Monday night, Iran reportedly fired missiles at two commercial vessels transiting the Strait.
If those reports are confirmed, it would mark one of the most serious violations yet of the MOU and raise further questions about whether diplomacy can survive yet another exchange of missile and drone attacks. Here's what we know. Late Monday night, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency received a distress report from a tanker sailing southbound near the Omani coast. According to the agency, the vessel was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile sparking a fire on board. Soon afterward, Axios reported that two US officials had identified the projectile as an Iranian missile fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC.
According to those officials, a second commercial vessel was also struck in the same area. Both ships reportedly suffered significant damage, though there have been no reported fatalities. Maritime security sources later identified the vessels as the Saudi-flagged crude oil supertanker Wedyan and the Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier Al-Rukyat. The LNG tanker reportedly suffered a hit near the top of its engine room, triggering a fire and forcing the crew to send out a mayday call before abandoning the vessel.
Now beyond the immediate damage to the ships, these attacks strike, of course, at the core of the US-Iran ceasefire or whatever you call this pretend ceasefire in agreement. One of the central provisions in the memorandum signed after the war was Iran's commitment to stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That promise was intended to restore confidence in one of the world's most vital energy choke points. But as we've discussed here on the PDB over the past several weeks, the ceasefire never actually resolved the underlying dispute over who controls access to the Strait, and it never really ceased the firing. Missiles and drones have been exchanged sporadically over the past few weeks as the Iranian regime continues to try and assert control over which vessels can transit the Strait and under what terms. As a result, shipping companies have remained very cautious and skeptical. Insurance premiums have stayed elevated. Many commercial operators have continued delaying voyages or have been rerouting vessels despite the agreement. Last week's indirect negotiations in Doha reportedly made little progress on the issue, leaving the safe passage provisions largely unresolved. Adding to those concerns, the IRGC reportedly spent the weekend warning merchant vessels to abandon the internationally recognized shipping corridor near Oman, and instead travel through routes designated by Iran. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, some ships received radio warnings declaring that Iranian missiles and drones were ready to fire if they failed to comply.
That's left commercial shipping in an increasingly impossible position. They can follow the internationally recognized transit lane, and the vessels risk becoming targets.
They can shift into Iranian designated waters, and shipping companies effectively will be acknowledging Tehran's claim that it controls passage through the strait. That uncertainty is precisely what the ceasefire was supposed to eliminate. Instead, Monday night's reported missile strike suggests that reality is nothing's changed. The Trump administration has not yet announced how it intends to respond, but if US intelligence concludes Iran deliberately targeted civilian shipping, Washington will come under significant pressure to retaliate. At the very least, the attacks are likely to complicate already stalled negotiations aimed at turning the temporary ceasefire into a more durable agreement. Well, given how ineffective this current MOU has been, it's a bit whimsical to talk about a more durable agreement. For now, investigators are still working to fully establish what happened. Luckily for the investigators, you don't need to be Poirot to determine if an Iranian missile hit a commercial vessel, so we should have confirmation shortly.