PDB Afternoon Bulletin | July 28th, 2026: China Is Already Preparing For Russia After Putin & Iran Weighs A Hormuz Compromise

**Mike Baker** (0:03)
Want to train like a Red Bull athlete?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:05)
Tell us your fitness goals this summer to enter the Red Bull Athlete Challenge. You'll get to try each of our workouts for a chance to win an ultimate Red Bull experience.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:13)
Think you have what it takes?

**Mike Baker** (0:27)
It's Tuesday, the 28th of July. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Vladimir Putin once served as a role model of sorts for Xi Jinping. Now, China is preparing for the day when Putin is gone and positioning itself to dominate whatever comes next in Russia. Later in the show, a new proposal could provide a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sort of, but it would require Iran to abandon its demand for sole control over the critical waterway. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.
China is quietly preparing for the day when Vladimir Putin is no longer running Russia, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Beijing has begun cultivating relationships with Russian officials, business leaders and the political elites beyond Putin's immediate circle, building ties with the people who could eventually shape the country after he's gone. Now, that doesn't mean, of course, that China is trying to remove Putin or that Beijing believes his departure is imminent. But it means Xi Jinping is no longer investing only in the man at the top. China is investing in the Russian system itself, and making sure that its influence, meaning China's influence, survives whoever or whatever comes next in Russia. Now, that's a remarkable reversal from the early years of Xi's rule. When Xi first took power, he reportedly admired Putin. The Russian leader had managed to command a seat at the world's top table, despite running an economy heavily dependent on oil and gas. Xi was likely enamored with Putin's ability to maintain a kung fu-like grip on power, despite the typical Kremlin and oligarch machinations.
Today, Putin is no longer, apparently, the model. He's increasingly the junior partner. Four years of war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and economic isolation have left Russia far more dependent on China than China is on Russia. In 2013, China accounted for roughly 10% of Russia's trade. Today, that figure is closer to 40%.
Russia, meanwhile, represents less than 4% of China's overall trade. And that imbalance gives Beijing enormous leverage. The clearest example is the proposed power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Now, Putin traveled to Beijing back in May of this year, hoping to secure Chinese approval for the project, which would allow Russia to redirect gas from fields that once supplied Europe. Moscow badly needs the deal. It would help validate Putin's claim that Russia can replace its lost European customers by pivoting toward Asia. But according to the Journal, Chinese officials demanded that Russia sell the gas at prices comparable to the heavily subsidized rates that Moscow charges at home. In other words, Beijing wanted Russia to help finance China's energy supply.
Chinese officials reportedly told Gazprom not to even raise the issue again, unless the terms changed. Putin left Beijing with dozens of agreements, but no pipeline deal. China could afford to wait. Russia can't. And the pressure is not limited to energy. Chinese cars, machinery, textiles and consumer goods are flooding the Russian market, often undercutting Russian producers. China is helping Russia survive Western sanctions while steadily capturing pieces of the Russian economy. The Journal also reports that Moscow has discovered Chinese espionage and recruitment attempts targeting mid-level Russian officials. What? Well, I am shocked that the Chinese intel apparatus would be spying on Russia. I thought they had a special friendship. The Kremlin has been reluctant to confront Beijing publicly, apparently out of fear that it could damage the broader relationship. Russia, of course, routinely loudly condemns Western espionage. But when China is involved, Moscow appears unwilling to confront the obvious.
To add complexity to the relationship dynamics, Beijing is reportedly increasingly uneasy about Russia's military relationship with North Korea. Putin has relied on Pyongyang for weapons and troops, but China worries that Moscow could transfer technology that improves North Korea's nuclear, missile or submarine capabilities. And that could push South Korea and Japan, in particular, into an even tighter interdependent alliance with the US, the exact opposite, of course, of what Beijing wants.
Putin reportedly proposed a trilateral summit between Russia, China and North Korea. Beijing declined. Xi then traveled to Pyongyang himself, apparently to reinforce that China, not Russia, remains North Korea's principal patron. Despite the imbalance in the relationship, though, the two nations do have significant ties. Beijing continues to buy discounted Russian oil, supply components that support Russia's defense industry, and provide financial infrastructure that helps Moscow weather Western sanctions. China still benefits from a Russia that is hostile to the West and capable of tying down American attention and resources.