**Mike Baker** (0:11)
It's Thursday, the 6th of August. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, in the category of, hey, what cheery news does Mike have for us today?
The Pentagon is reportedly rewriting America's nuclear war strategy, placing greater emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons as it prepares for a potential conflict with Russia or China. Later in the show, Vladimir Putin announces a sweeping shakeup of Russia's military leadership, overhauling battlefield commanders and logistics and drone operations as the Kremlin searches for a way to regain momentum in Ukraine. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new nuclear strategy for a potential war with Russia or China, one that would place greater emphasis on shorter-range nuclear weapons that could be used in a regional conflict. Oh, good.
Let's normalize nuke use on a limited regional basis. That's according to an exclusive report from NBC News, which says the classified effort is being led by Elbridge Colby. He's the Pentagon's undersecretary for policy. The report points to a potentially significant change in how the Pentagon thinks about nuclear deterrence. For decades, America's nuclear strategy has relied heavily on the threat of overwhelming retaliation. Long-range missiles, nuclear-armed submarines and strategic bombers, basically the triad of nuke policy, is designed to convince an adversary that any nuclear attack on the US or possibly one of its allies would bring catastrophic consequences. The problem, according to officials involved in this new review, is that those consequences may be so catastrophic that Russia or China may not believe an American president would ever accept them during a smaller regional war.
Imagine, for example, that Russia attacks a NATO member but stops short of launching a full-scale nuclear assault, or that China moves against Taiwan and begins striking American forces and bases across the Pacific. Would Washington really respond by launching intercontinental ballistic missiles and risking the destruction of American cities in return?
Well, Pentagon officials reportedly worry that Moscow and Beijing may conclude that the answer is no. And if America's enemies don't believe that Washington would ever carry out its nuclear threats, then those threats may no longer serve as an effective deterrent. At least, that's the theory here. The proposed solution, according to this reporting, is to give the president more options.
That would mean placing greater emphasis on what are often called tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons, shorter-range weapons intended for use against specific military targets rather than entire countries. Those targets could include airfields or naval bases, troop formations, missile batteries or command centers. But the word tactical here can be misleading. It can make these weapons sound small or surgical or somehow separate from the wider horrors of nuclear war. And they're not. Some tactical nuclear weapons can produce explosions comparable to or even more powerful than the bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. They would still create massive destruction, radiation and civilian casualties. The distinction is not between a clean nuclear strike and a catastrophic one. Still, supporters of the strategy argue that nuclear deterrence only works when an adversary believes the US might actually use the weapons in its arsenal. A senior Pentagon official told NBC that America needs, quote, credible nuclear options. Well, doesn't everyone? The official argued that giving the president more realistic choices would strengthen deterrence by avoiding a situation in which the only options are backing down or launching an overwhelming strategic attack. That argument also applies to what's known as extended deterrence, the American promise to protect allies beneath the US nuclear umbrella. Countries in Europe and Asia have relied on that promise for decades. But if Russia or China doubts that Washington would risk an all out nuclear exchange to protect an ally, that promise, according to proponents of this strategy, begins to look weaker. Supporters believe more limited nuclear options could restore credibility and make an adversary less willing to start a war in the first place. But critics see a very different danger. They warn that once nuclear weapons are presented as realistic battlefield tools, they may become easier for leaders to contemplate using. And once even one nuclear weapon is detonated, there's no guarantee that the conflict would remain limited. Russia or China might not know whether additional strikes were coming. They might not know whether their political leadership, nuclear forces or command systems were being targeted. And they could face enormous pressure to retaliate immediately before losing the ability to do so.
A strike intended as a warning could therefore be mistaken for the opening phase of a much larger attack. War games conducted over many, many years have repeatedly shown how quickly those scenarios can escalate. And that's really the heart of this debate. The Pentagon believes nuclear threats may only deter an enemy if they are credible enough to be used. But making nuclear weapons more usable, well, that could also lower the barrier that's prevented their use since 1945
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