Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion

Jérémie Boyer (0:00)

We're pretty much bullish on gold. I think the couple from old price, this is what maybe the confirmation we were waiting for to become bullish again on gold. As we saw since maybe August, and so far in September, there's been a huge spike in error. You would have it or central banks of like China buying physical on copper. It's something maybe that we see more long term.

I think the story was already good, and now with AI, it just become even better, and I think that funds are getting in. Lumentum light the company. It's a big company. The Etoile girl, we asked her about is copper a risk for your company because you need to be supply about it. She came out with like, yeah, I think copper has a lot of more room to go to the upside. And we were like, okay, so now even the arts and at big companies like this, Photonics are talking about copper.

Jack Farley (1:02)

This episode is brought to you by Plutus. Later on, you'll hear more about how Plutus is bringing model portfolios from research providers like Citrini, HFI Research, Aurelion, Le Shrub, AP Research, and Elliant Capital to your self custody brokerage account. Let's get into today's interview. Welcome back to Other People's Money. I am Max Weethe and I'm joined today by Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research. Jérémie, thank you so much for joining me today.

Jérémie Boyer (1:26)

Hi, Max. Thank you for having me.

Jack Farley (1:28)

So Aurelion is one of the great independent research providers out there on Substack. You guys are very cross asset, but it would be wrong for me not to say that you specialize in commodities, and commodities have been a major story in 2026, certainly taking the reins, it feels like, from AI in the back half of the year as inflation and fiscal concerns and all of these things have continued to spiral along with a Hormuz crisis that just won't end. So Jérémie, I know you just wrote a piece about your commodity outlook. You gave a strong view on five commodities. I want to start with your strongest view. What is your most high conviction belief in the commodity complex right now?

Jérémie Boyer (2:16)

This is kind of easy, but maybe the safest one would be gold. I think like I don't see how it won't go back to like 5K USD an ounce. I think like we saw that back once Hormuz happened, it was inversely trading with oil. So as long as oil was going up, gold was crashing. But like in July or something like that, recently we saw it decouple from oil. And that's what exactly what we were waiting for at Aurelion. That's why we became bullish. And recently we wrote about it. And we kind of, I think we were really right. And now we don't see how it would stop. So it would be the most bullish one. I think it's getting a little tricky at the Fed, but I think that we saw recently it was one of the biggest inflows from like ideas and funds that are, okay, am I missing the train or the boat?

I need to get in the gold because like every day you have gold up 2% which never really happens.

So if you kind of miss this and the mining are up like 30% in a month and you are a fund and you are not in the client's app, you just call you and you're like, what are you doing? You know, so that's that everything put together and there's, we also have China that's pretty important. And we saw that about like 60, I think it's 66 tones out of 100 from all the global central bank, like buying a gold.

Jack Farley (4:01)

Was that just last month?

Jérémie Boyer (4:03)

Yeah. Well, this is in June.

Jack Farley (4:06)

In June, okay. So in June, they bought.

Jérémie Boyer (4:08)

But we don't always have the most recent data. So that's from Goldman Sachs, usually pretty accurate. But yeah, when I saw this, I was like, okay, it's getting really, you know, it's a good movement.

Jack Farley (4:23)

Well, let's go back to that period when gold cooled off, because I think a lot of people, they think, oh, inflation is picking up. That is going to be a positive driver for gold. And certainly over the long run debasement, inflation is the core driver of gold prices moving up. But I think one of the things that's counterintuitive to a lot of people who aren't tracking it is the way that gold and real interest rates interact. And so you had a period of time when inflation in the short term looked like it was picking up and that rates were going to have to come up. But inflation expectations were kind of still stuck in that two and a half percent range. And so when you have the expectation that rates are going to rise, but inflation expectations aren't really going up with it, that's a scenario where real rates are going up. And that can be a short term pressure for gold.