One small metric signals midterm disaster for Republicans

Brian Tyler Cohen (0:01)

We've got some shocking numbers in the voter registration changes category, and I've got two interviews, Pod Save America's Tommy Vietor and Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie.

For the last few years, there has been a set of numbers that I've been watching that served as something of a canary in the coal mine. And those were the voter registration changes in each state. And for years, those numbers have gone up for Republicans by a wider margin than they have for Democrats. In nearly every state, even in blue states, more voters would register as Republicans than would register as Democrats. In some instances, Democratic registration would actually go down while Republican numbers would go up. Same story every month for years. Until now, according to the latest voter registration changes, Democrats are finally showing voter registration advantages in states like Nebraska, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Colorado, California, Delaware, New Jersey, even Florida. All of those states where Republicans had constantly been registering more Republicans than Democrats have just reversed that tide. In fact, according to Gallup, in the third quarter of this year, so right now, 50% of respondents identified as Democrats, while only 39% identified as Republicans. That's an 11-point advantage for the left. The largest quarterly margin since the first quarter of 2009 That's how far you have to go back to see a margin that big. For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2024, so during the election, Republicans had a four-point advantage. So in total, between the 2024 election versus midterms now, we're looking at a 15-point swing to the left since the last major election. And there's another trend that's being reversed. So since 2010, Democrats have been shedding control of state legislatures.

In fact, this is something that I wrote about in my first book, Shameless. I'm going to read an excerpt from that now.

By 2010, shortly after the activity of the Tea Party movement had crested, Republicans introduced Project Red Map, the goal of which was to win control of state legislatures ahead of redistricting in a successful effort to gerrymander both legislative and congressional maps. As election lawyer Mark Elias, the National Authority on Voter Rights, explained, Project Red Map was one of the first concerted efforts to weaponize redistricting. What Project Red Map did was it came at the perfect period when computer technology had evolved to allow gerrymandering to be done with a lot more precision. And it was right after the Tea Party movement. So there was the convergence of two things, a hyperpartisan impulse on the side of Republicans and new technology to execute it. But it was always an effort to weaponize the redistricting process and ruthlessly engage in partisan gerrymandering. It was, of course, highly intentional and strategic.

In other words, for almost two decades, there has been a concerted and successful effort by Republicans to flip state legislatures. And obviously, we've all seen the consequences of that. The consequences on maps, on abortion rights, and on and on. Well, even that trend now seems to have stopped in its tracks. According to Washington Post, Democrats are on offense. They could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own, a Washington Post analysis found. Republicans are on their heels with the chance to disrupt full Democratic control in only two states and pick up full control in as many as five.

Now, with all of that said, none of this is to make you feel complacent. This is all meant to inspire you to recognize that a lot of long-standing trend lines that have plagued the left are now being reversed. But to continue that, that takes work. Trump is going to tease the prospect of a big October surprise. He's going to try and undermine the results. He'll sue. He'll get his lackeys and secretary of state's offices to meddle. He will do whatever he can, hoping that even the prospect of interference is going to suppress the vote. Do not give him the satisfaction. Every time you hear about some effort to interfere in the election, just let it redouble your intention to make your voice heard. The election will be free and fair. Make a plan and vote early. And let's land this plane that will effectively end Trump's presidency fewer than four weeks from today.

Next up are my interviews with Tommy Vietor and Sherrod Brown.

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