Oil Plunges 20%: Is $60 Or $125 Next? | Doomberg

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

The combination of Iran, Russia, China and North Korea are producing missiles at a much faster rate than the West can. Ukraine got the short end of the stick. If we were the head of Ukraine, if we were Zelensky, we would be very angry about this situation.

David Lin (0:13)

Suppose next month we wake up to the news that Putin has decided to push all wars into Kiev and just occupy it. What is the Western response? It's Friday, November 13th. Well, the gasoline price has been falling for weeks now. Gasoline is just under $4 a gallon, and the crude oil price WTI is now at $89, down from $104 just a few weeks ago. What's causing this decline in not just crude oil, but distillate product as well? And will this fall continue? We're going to get the latest from Doomberg, head writer of Doomberg Substack. He's going to give us his outlook on oil, the situation in Iran. Will there be a concession soon? Will there be a negotiation soon?

And a deal. Ultimately, how does this war end? And importantly, how does the Iran war affect the Ukraine war? Well, he warns that a dangerous path in Eastern Europe could take us on a path to World War III if the situation continues. We're going to find out what that is. All right, right now on Kalshi, there's a prediction on how the WTI price will trade by the end of the year. There's a 69% chance it goes to 80 or above. Doomberg is going to give us his forecast. So if you agree those odds, a $50 trade could yield a payout of $83 if you turn out to be correct. This video is sponsored by Kalshi, largest prediction market in the US. It's not a sports book, so you're trading peer to peer on real world events, from political outcomes to economic events. And so the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. And go to the link down below, we'll scan the QR code here to get started. New users who use my code LinLin get $25 in app credits when you sign up and trade $25.

Kalshi is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states, including California and Texas. Welcome back, Doomberg. Good to see you.

SPEAKER_1 (1:55)

Yeah, David, great to be with you, first of all. Looking dapper as always. Thank you. Thank you. So we felt like the market was telling us the day before the midterms, how the midterms would go, and that the war was indeed over. At least the hot kinetic risking all the infrastructure, the Middle East part of the war.

Trump is all over the place, as you know, and so sometimes it can be difficult to understand the messaging around it. But our take right now and what the markets seem to be pricing in is that indeed the US and Israel will, are unlikely to be launching, you know, a third wave of airstrikes, restart of the war.

But instead what we're going to see is this uncomfortable detente, this economic war, this cat and mouse game in the strait, the blockade, the occasional bombing of a missile launching site on an island somewhere that nobody knows about or cares about. But the big risk on the board seems to have been removed. The markets can be wrong. Things can always change. Iran gets a say as well. But I think this war ends with a whimper, not with a bang. Is the base case now being priced in?

David Lin (3:07)

Yes. And with the whipsawing of Trump's statements, are markets taking into effect the changes in foreign policy that may have occurred or may or may not have occurred after and following the midterm elections?

SPEAKER_1 (3:22)

Yeah, I think obviously the midterms have unlocked a whole series of certainty for behavior choices among many players in the geopolitical world, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, the domestic elections and that situation in Israel.

What's going on with Brazil? So all over the world, of course, in the weeks leading up to the midterms, things were kind of frozen until people saw those results. But now that we have such a definitive answer to how the electorate is feeling, and now that sort of Trump is re-engaging for the second half of his presidency, cleaning house a little bit, changing the team members, changing some of his positions, I think we're now in the reaction phase. We have this really important lame duck congressional session coming up. A lot gets done in lame duck sessions, which we can talk about a lot more actually than in sort of regular order sometimes, for a variety of interesting reasons. And so, I think the markets are trying to make sense of it. Look, we're looking at oil coming down, gold shot up for a bit, now it's back to the pre-election levels. Interesting look at the 10-year, you have this whole crazy situation with NVIDIA. And so, there's a lot of moving parts, and obviously we can take it in any direction that you find of particular interest.