October 16th, 2026: Ukraine Resumes Russian Oil Strikes & Moscow's Massive New Drone Base

Mike Baker (0:00)

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It's Friday, the 16th of October. Look at that. We've made it to the end of another work week. Well done, everyone. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine declares an end to President Trump's supposed energy ceasefire. Well now, that would be the ceasefire that neither side had agreed to, ending Ukraine's unilateral pause on targeting Russian energy infrastructure after accusing Moscow of ignoring the supposed agreement that was never really an agreement. I know, it's a tad bit confusing, but we'll have the details. Later in the show, Russia has built a massive new drone base in just six weeks, expanding Moscow's ability to strike targets across Ukraine. Plus, China issues a new warning to Taiwan following a confrontation at sea, as the US raises alarms over Beijing's increasingly aggressive maritime operations. And in today's Back of the Brief, President Trump reversed his course on plans to live stream the execution of the Fort Hood gunmen. I never thought I would actually say the phrase, live stream the execution. But first, in today's PDB Spotlight, Ukraine is once again attacking Russian oil facilities, with President Zelensky declaring that Kiev is finished unilaterally honoring President Trump's proposed energy ceasefire. A large-scale drone assault struck Russia's Ryazan region early Thursday, setting fire to a major oil refinery about 180 miles southeast of Moscow.

Now, the attacks also damaged a warehouse and prompted Russian authorities to cancel schools across two districts. The refinery itself is an important target. Operated by Russian oil giant Rosneft, the facility supplies fuel to Moscow and accounts for nearly 5% of Russia's total oil refining throughput.

The full extent of the damage remains unclear, but the attack marks a significant development in the growing confrontation between Kiev and Washington over Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil industry. As we've reported, President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend despite neither side being aware that there was an agreement. Ukraine subsequently suspended its attacks on Russian oil facilities for three days. Moscow, however, continued pounding Ukrainian infrastructure with missiles and drones. Those attacks left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without electricity, including some 600,000 people who lost power following Russian strikes earlier this week. And now Zelensky says Ukraine has had enough. In an interview with the Financial Times published Thursday, the Ukrainian president declared that his country was finished unilaterally observing the restrictions and would resume its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.

The decision puts Kiev on a direct collision course with the Trump administration, which has been pushing Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil facilities, despite the fact that Russia has not stopped targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. But that's another point. Trump has blamed those attacks, the Ukrainian attacks that is, for contributing to soaring global diesel prices. His administration has also eased restrictions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to increase global supplies. Now, there's no word as to whether the White House thinks the Iran conflict, with its disruptions to two major trade routes, has had anything to do with the rising fuel prices. Zelensky argues that attacking Russian refineries is one of Ukraine's most effective means of weakening Moscow's war effort. The strikes disrupt fuel production, impose additional costs on the Russian economy, and force Moscow to divert resources toward protecting facilities deep inside its own territory. And according to Zelensky, Ukraine should not be expected to stop those attacks while Russia continues destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Zelensky suggested that Ukraine could reconsider its refinery campaign if Washington agreed to provide additional American-made Patriot missile interceptors, which Kyiv desperately needs to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks, which again have not stopped. But this dispute over energy strikes is only part of the increasingly strained relationship between the two countries.

There's also been a significant development involving the American satellite technology that Ukrainian forces rely on for battlefield operations. As we reported yesterday on the PDB, Ukrainian troops reported unexpected restrictions on SpaceX's satellite communications services, particularly Starshield. That's the military focused version of Starlink. The restrictions reportedly limited connectivity for terminals traveling faster than approximately 100 miles per hour. That's a serious problem for Ukraine's military, which relies on those systems to maintain communications with drones and other fast moving battlefield equipment. However, on Thursday, a source inside Ukraine's defense ministry confirmed that Starshield service had been fully restored. Axios also reported that both Starlink and Starshield were operating at full capacity. That's according to a Ukrainian official. So the immediate disruption appears to have been resolved. What remains unanswered is why the restrictions were imposed in the first place. And that's where things get particularly interesting. Elon Musk, whose company SpaceX developed and operates the satellite technology, has pointed toward Washington. Responding to questions about the disruption, Musk said that Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government, and that restrictions on their speed or usage are decided by the American military and ultimately the president. In other words, Musk says these decisions are not his to make. That has naturally raised questions about whether the Trump administration deliberately restricted Ukraine's military communications as a means of pressuring Zelensky over the refinery attacks.