October 15th, 2026: Iran's Regime Is Preparing for a War That Could Break It & Ukrainian Officer Faces Trial

Mike Baker (0:13)

It's Thursday, the 15th of October. Look at that, we are halfway through the month. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And what a world stage it is. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran is fortifying its nuclear facilities, mobilizing civilians and preparing for another round of fighting with the US. But with its military badly weakened and its economy under enormous pressure, what exactly is the Islamic Republic's calculus here?

Later in the show, a Ukrainian special forces veteran goes on trial in Germany, accused of leading the covert operation that destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines.

Plus, the US conducts an underground experiment in Nevada designed to detect secret nuclear explosions as Washington accuses China of conducting clandestine nuclear tests.

The thing I like about 2026 is that it's just been so peaceful and devoid of conflict. And in today's Back of the Brief, the FBI arrests an OpenAI employee after a listening device is discovered inside an executive conference room at the company's San Francisco offices. Well, that is pretty much how industrial espionage works. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

Iran is preparing for another round of fighting with the US. And according to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, those preparations now extend well beyond the country's military installations. Satellite imagery shows Iran is strengthening defenses around sensitive nuclear facilities, including Natanz and the underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain. The regime has constructed earthen barriers around most of the entrances, apparently designed to make it more difficult for American forces to carry out potential ground operations. Iranian officials say the country's airports, ports, and power plants are also preparing for wartime conditions, installing shelters and emergency supplies. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, is working to mobilize the population. Why, it seemed like just earlier this year that the IRGC and Basij militia demobilized thousands of their population, slaughtering them for daring to protest in the streets. Billboards in Tehran advertise civilian training courses involving sniper rifles and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. Well, one can only hope that they issue rifles and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to the civilians. That could be a very positive development here. In addition, the Guard has publicized the training of female commando units, while paramilitary personnel have visited kindergartens to tell children stories about the war. Good news, kids. We're having some fairly radical paramilitary commandos coming in to talk to you about war. It's going to be great. And Iranian leaders are threatening a much more aggressive response if President Trump resumes military operations after the November midterm elections.

According to the Journal, Tehran has warned regional governments that another American attack could trigger strikes against Saudi oil facilities, American warships and critical infrastructure throughout the Gulf. Some officials have even raised the possibility of sending Iranian ground forces into neighboring countries. It sounds like the regime's medications need to be adjusted. Regardless, the message Tehran is trying to send does seem somewhat clear. Another war won't be limited to Iran, and the consequences could be considerably more severe than the last round of fighting. But there's an obvious problem with their threat. Iran has already suffered enormous military losses. Its economy is under extraordinary pressure. Its conventional forces have been badly weakened, and it remains dramatically outmatched by the US and regional allies. Which raises an interesting question. Is Iran preparing to fight a war that it can't win? Well, it is the Islamic Republic, and they do tend to not be on the same logic train. Well, to answer that, you have to first consider what Iran has left. Since the war began in February, American and Israeli forces have struck thousands of Iranian military targets, damaging air defenses, missile installations, naval assets and command facilities. Iran's ability to challenge American forces in a conventional military engagement has been severely diminished. Its air force obviously cannot compete with American aircraft. The US would have air superiority. And its navy would face overwhelming disadvantages in a direct confrontation, to say the least. But that does not mean that Iran is defenseless, as they've shown with their continuing disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz. The regime still possesses missiles, drones and other weapons capable of threatening American bases and the waterway and regional allies and commercial infrastructure. And while its military has taken significant losses, the full extent of its remaining capabilities has been difficult to establish specifically. Tehran may instead be calculating that it can make another war so expensive, disruptive and politically complicated that Washington eventually decides the costs outweigh the benefits. Consider the targets that Iran is threatening. American military installations across the Gulf, Saudi oil facilities, commercial shipping. And now, according to Iranian officials, data centers and undersea communications infrastructure. In other words, Iran's strategy isn't to defeat the US., but to expand the conflict until Washington decides it's had enough.