No, Trump's tariffs haven't reshored manufacturing jobs

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Kyle Rizdahl** (0:32)
On the program today, a little of this, a little of that, some data, some AI and the Fed. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdall, Tuesday, 28th July. Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. We got the June trade gap today, specifically the difference in our goods trade, how much stuff we bought from overseas versus what we sell there. It shrank about 4% from May, but shrank is a relative term because we are still importing hundreds of billions of dollars more stuff than we export. Despite President Trump's tariffs, some old, some new, that he has said would bring the trade gap down. Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes has more.

**Stephanie Hughes** (1:23)
Before we talk about the June trade deficit, you should know that American companies imported a lot earlier this year after the US attacked Iran, says nationwide economist Oren Klatschkin.

**Oren Klatschkin** (1:34)
Anytime we get hit with some kind of unexpected shock, companies' first reaction basically is to go out and raise their stockpiles.

**Stephanie Hughes** (1:43)
And in June, those companies were like, we are good, causing imports to fall and the trade deficit to narrow.
Still, there are some US industries that just can't get enough imports. I'm looking at UTech sector. It needs computer chips from Asia.

**Oren Klatschkin** (1:58)
Spending on artificial intelligence continues to trend at a really solid pace. This type of investment basically looks past conflict and past tariffs and anything else.

**Stephanie Hughes** (2:09)
The waves of tariffs have affected trade. Specifically, who we are trading with, says UBS economist Jonathan Pingle.

**Jonathan Pingle** (2:16)
You've certainly seen a drop off in imports from China, as the China tariffs were increased. And there have been beneficiaries in other parts of Asia, Southeast Asia.

**Stephanie Hughes** (2:28)
And even if American companies are looking to source more goods domestically, it takes a while to up and build a factory, says Nationwide's Oren Klatchkin.

**Oren Klatschkin** (2:37)
That type of investment is planned out over years. It goes through multiple layers of sign-off, right? So these things play out over a long period of time.

**Stephanie Hughes** (2:47)
Also, a trade deficit isn't necessarily a bad thing, says Ryan Monarch, an economics professor at Syracuse.

**Ryan Monarch** (2:54)
If you have a trade deficit, another way of saying that is that your country is a place in which a lot of other countries really want to invest, where they want to put their money into.

**Stephanie Hughes** (3:03)
They give us stuff, we give them American dollars, and that's a sign they believe in the US economy. I'm Stephanie Hughes from Marketplace.

**Kyle Rizdahl** (3:11)
Wall Street on this Tuesday, the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Industrials did just fine. Chipmakers, not so much.
Details numbers when we get there. The Uncertain Hour The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials The Dow Industrials Tomorrow, about this time, we'll have a better sense of what Kevin Warsh and the gang at the Fed are thinking about this economy and how they would like to handle it. As we sit here today, though, while Warsh is not exactly an enigma, he's also not exactly the most talkative chairman the Fed's ever had. So we're gonna do a little preview of what might be coming tomorrow and what it might mean, and we're gonna do that with Claudia Somme. She's the chief economist at New Century Advisors. Also, once upon a time, she spent more than a decade working at the Central Bank. Claudia, welcome to the program. Good to have you on.

**Claudia Somme** (4:15)
Great to be here today.

**Kyle Rizdahl** (4:16)
Seems to me that the first thing we ought to talk about, obviously, when talking about the Fed, is inflation these days. What do we know about how Chairman Warsh measures and thinks about inflation?

**Claudia Somme** (4:27)
We know that Chair Warsh thinks inflation is too high. We don't know as much about exactly how he measures it or exactly what he thinks behind it, but he has been unequivocal that inflation is too high and that he will get it down.