Nir Bar Dea on the New World Order, AI, and Israel's Risks

**Nir Bar Dea** (0:00)
Just like in the 30s, we're in that stage of two things happening. Both the productivity miracle that happened 200 years ago is happening with AI, plus the changing world order is happening at the same time. And you have a bunch of people that are saying, wait, wait, wait, this system does not work for me. And they're disenfranchised and they're upset. This means that society is gonna be destabilized so deeply that if we don't wrap our heads around and never get it well, it could be catastrophic. It could also be amazing, no matter whether we learn from lessons of the past.

**Yonit Levi** (0:39)
It's Unholy, I'm Yonit Levi in Tel Aviv. Jonathan will be back next week. This is the latest of our Tuesday conversations and a very special one. Nir Bar Dea is the CEO of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world. And this conversation will circle around the economy, but much more than that. It's going to be about human history and technology and the unique and frightening moment we are in right now from someone who focuses on trying to understand where the world is heading. So let's dive right in.
Nir Bar Dea is the CEO of Bridgewater. It's the largest hedge fund in the world. He joined the firm in 2015 in the research department. In 2020, he was named to the prestigious Fortune 40 under 40 list in the finance category. He's a phenomenal Wall Street success story, but it's definitely not a conventional one. He's Israeli, he served in the Air Force. He's a high school dropout to the relief of Jewish mothers everywhere. He did do his exams and then has his bachelor's degrees in finance from the IDC in Herzliya and MBA from the Wharton School. And apart from his important day job, he sits on the board of Global Citizen, which is focused on ending extreme poverty around the world. Robin Hood, which focuses on alleviating poverty in New York and the Atlantic Council. I don't know how he has time for it all in the year. It is such a pleasure to have you on Unholy.

**Nir Bar Dea** (1:58)
It's awesome to be here.

**Yonit Levi** (1:59)
I've had the opportunity and the pleasure to hear you twice. And I remember that every time I do, there's this echo in my head of Professor Stanley Fischer, who is the vice chair of the Federal Reserve and the governor of the Bank of Israel. Once I asked him, you know, Stanley, why are you so interested in economics? And he said, well, it isn't math, it's psychology. And when I listen to you, it's beyond economy, it's psychology, it's history, it's society, it's technology. There's so much in what you think and how you see the world. And obviously your most important job is to understand the world and where it's heading. So we'd like to pick your blur in a little bit if we can. There's so much to talk about, but we are sitting here on Monday, early evening Israel time and morning on the East Coast. And I wonder when we see these reports on a deal and the fact that it might be signed between Iran and the US on Friday.
Can I get your thoughts on the financial aspect of this? How long do you think it will take to recover from this financially?

**Nir Bar Dea** (2:55)
Yeah. So first of all, like you're saying, the thing I love about my job the most is as a macro investor, it forces us to stare at the world, all pieces. Everything is relevant. Everything is in the game and try to understand what's driving, we call it cause-effect linkages, what's driving economies and markets, and then make predictions. I'll say one word about Bridgewater, then I'll get to Iran.
The thing that has drawn me to Bridgewater way from the beginning was this idea that, look, to have an understanding of how the world works, it is so complicated. There's so many different things that you have taken into account that 50 years ago, Bridgewater decided to basically take the best of humans, the best of technology, match them together, and for 50 years build a model. So it's not my thoughts, what I want to say now. There is probably the most robust macro model that exists anywhere in the world. At Bridgewater, that takes into account all the learnings that we've had over the last 50 years. And all that to say, I don't know about what's going to happen in the land, but I'll tell you what I do know.

**Yonit Levi** (3:57)
You did set it up nicely though.