NEW DATA: Have The Bitcoin Whales Lost CONTROL of the Price?! | EP 1523

**Opti** (0:02)
We have some new data suggesting that Bitcoin might be closer to a bottom than anyone thinks. Even though Bitcoin is facing ETF outflows led by BlackRock, macro headwinds caused by the Middle East, and the last couple of days of stock market wipeout due to AI capital rotation, and though we cannot guarantee where the Bitcoin bottom will be exactly, you're gonna wanna stick around because I've been making the case that I think we are a lot further along in this bear market than everyone is thinking. Everyone's still saying Q4, four-year cycle. And even though, like I said, there might be a little more pain left in the market, I think as I've been iterating, this is the best time to be buying. Unless you're sitting there like, I want to capitulate on my fiat at one time, I wanna smash buy a lot of Bitcoin, I think now is a good time to start to, or rather, continue your dollar cost, averaging your accumulation game, or maybe start deploying some capital back into the market. Not all at once, not all at once. Let's not get ahead of our skis here.
Again, it could go a little lower. I'm hedging my bets here, guys. I'm hedging my bets. But I think the bear market low is going to be, in October, are overstated. But again, the data I am going to show you is going to show you that we, there's probably might be a little more pain, okay? But that still, I think, points to what I've been saying, that we are a lot closer to the end than, you know, what's up, 40% through the bear market. I really don't think that that's the case at all. Anyways, I am going to start with the ETF outflows. This was last week. We didn't actually cover this, but last week we saw spot Bitcoin ETFs log a $1.7 billion weekly outflows. Obviously, in terms of how much capital is traded in Bitcoin, it's not that much. Yes, it's big number, but you know, the numbers we usually get are about somewhere between 30 and $50 billion of trading volume. I am of the opinion that the ETFs are actually buying the Bitcoin. I don't necessarily believe that they are just trading paper Bitcoin per se. From the data I've seen, I've been saying this for a while, it does look as if the ETFs are actually buying and selling the Bitcoin they claim to have. So that was last week. It's Wednesday. I didn't get to this. So I will update this and I'm over on SoSoValue. Is it? Yeah, sosovalue.com. And I have it shown the total weekly net outflows this week. So far is 168.81 million. So not huge, obviously not huge, but I want you to keep in mind what I've been saying the last couple of weeks. This is in the context of no one is buying Bitcoin. Remember what I've been saying, or rather what we've been saying, what other Bitcoiners have been saying. All the capital right now is chasing the SpaceX IPO or the AI hype bubble, as I like to call it.
I will touch a little more on the AI stuff because it seems I had triggered people when I talked about AI last week. They're like, you need to understand AI more. I'm like, I get it, I get it. But yeah, I will touch on that kind of conversation at the end of the show.
Okay, so first steps first. We are seeing outflows from the ETFs. And one of the things I have been saying, which is obviously since 2024 of January, the institutions entered Bitcoin. And then since then, last year, of course, we got more institutional flows. And then the beginning of this year, we saw even more institutional products being launched by Wall Street. So there is an appetite for Bitcoin. But again, in the last four weeks, and I think this does really relate to the AI capital rotation that everyone's been talking about. Again, everyone is chasing either the AI stocks, they're probably bored because Bitcoin hasn't done anything, or they're positioning themselves for the SpaceX IPO. And from what I saw this morning, it's already like four times oversubscribed. So about $200 billion in cash over what they were going to do. So it looks like the IPO is where every... That's the crowded trade right now, is the SpaceX IPO. And again, that is on Friday. So it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens over the weekend, how that stock performs, whether it's got a huge crash, or is everyone just gonna chase the hype and it's going to continue to go up, basically on its IPO price. Now, of course, the second thing I mentioned, which is the Middle East. Again, who knows what's going on over there? I can't even count how many times we've heard from Trump that a deal is eminent. It seems though at this point, the ceasefire is at the most delicate point it has been since the start of this war. And what I saw before the show was it looks like we are going to start bombing Iran again and kill us by we, I mean the US. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see some more macro uncertainty heading towards the end of the week. It looks like more bombing campaigns are going on right now. So that's two factors that are obviously working against us. And if you're watching equities, obviously equities and stocks have been pumping.