Moscow Has An Air-Defense Problem & Xi's New Purge

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Friday, the 19th of June. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. The first up, Ukraine brings the war to Moscow. In dramatic fashion, a massive drone attack struck multiple targets across the Russian capital, including a key oil refinery. As new reports suggest, Russia's air defenses may be burning through interceptor missiles at an unsustainable rate. Later in the show, Xi Jinping launches a sweeping new purge inside the Communist Party, punishing nearly one million, that's right, I said one million officials as he tightens his grip on power. Plus, new reporting reveals the US military prepared a plan to send ground troops into Iran to seize Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile before President Trump reportedly put the kibosh on the operation.
In today's Back of the Brief, Toronto police say a network of hired gunmen may be behind a string of attacks targeting synagogues, Jewish institutions and the US. Consulate. But first, today's PDB spotlight.
We start with the Ukraine conflict. For years, Ukraine has struggled with a shortage of air defense missiles, forcing Kiev to make difficult choices about what it could protect and what it couldn't. Now, according to new intelligence estimates, Russia may be facing the same dilemma. That possibility came into focus this week after Ukraine launched its largest air raid on Moscow since the war began, striking a major oil refinery and exposing what may be growing cracks in Russia's air defenses. According to Ukrainian officials, drones struck multiple locations across the Russian capital early Thursday morning, including the Kapotnaya oil refinery in southeastern Moscow. The facility is one of the most important pieces of energy infrastructure in the city, supplying roughly 40 percent of Moscow's gasoline and about half of its diesel fuel. Videos posted online appear to show large plumes of smoke rising from the refinery as emergency crews responded to the scene. The attack also disrupted operations at several airports, serving the capital, and briefly halted traffic near the refinery. Russian authorities claimed they intercepted hundreds of Ukrainian drones overnight, though those figures could not be independently verified. Even so, enough drones appear to have penetrated Russian defenses to inflict meaningful damage. That oil refinery, by the way, is only about 10 miles from the Kremlin. For Ukrainian President Zelensky, the message was straightforward. He described the attack as retaliation for Russia's recent missile and drone strikes in Kiev, including damage to the historic Pachersk Lavra Monastery complex. In essence, Ukraine is making the argument that if Russia continues targeting Ukrainian cities, then Moscow itself will increasingly become a target. But while the images of smoke rising over the Russian capital grabbed the headlines, the more important question is how those drones managed to get there in the first place. That's where a new report from CBS News becomes particularly interesting. According to several Ukrainian officials familiar with intelligence assessments, Russia is facing a growing shortage of S-300 interceptor missiles. Now, the S-300 system has been a cornerstone of Russian air defenses for decades and remains an important component of Moscow's layered network designed to protect military facilities and critical infrastructure and population centers.
Russia still possesses newer and more advanced systems, including the S-400 and the Pantsir platforms. But officials, cited by CBS News, say stocks of S-300 interceptors have declined significantly, and there are several reasons why.
First, Russia has spent years defending against an increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian drone campaign. What began as relatively modest attacks has evolved into a sustained effort to strike deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian drones now routinely target refineries, fuel depots, air bases, logistics hubs, and military production facilities hundreds of miles from the front lines. Second, Ukrainian forces have made a concerted effort to target the actual Russian air defense systems. Throughout occupied Crimea and other Russian controlled territory, Kiev has repeatedly struck radar installations and missile launchers and supporting infrastructure. Every destroyed launcher represents not only a lost asset but also of course fewer opportunities to intercept future attacks. And finally, Russia has reportedly repurposed some S-300 missiles for offensive operations.
Originally designed as air defense interceptors, some have been modified for use as surface-to-surface weapons and fired against targets inside Ukraine. Every missile used in that role is, of course, one less missile available to defend Russian airspace. The result is an increasingly familiar problem. Since the opening months of the war, Ukraine has repeatedly warned that it lacked enough interceptor missiles to defend every city and power plant, military base and critical piece of infrastructure under threat. Kiev often found itself forced to prioritize. Some targets received protection while others remained exposed. Now, there are growing signs that Russia may be confronting a similar challenge. After all, Russia, of course, is a vast country. It has to protect military installations, strategic bomber bases, command centers, oil refineries, transportation hubs, ammunition depots, and major population centers spread across thousands of miles. Not to mention the ring of air defense systems placed around Putin's personal residences. Let's not forget those. No nation possesses an unlimited number of interceptors. At some point, difficult decisions become unavoidable. Military analyst Rob Lee told CBS News that Russia may be consuming air defense missiles at an unsustainable rate as Ukraine expands its long-range strike campaign. If that assessment is accurate, Moscow could face increasingly difficult choices about where to concentrate its defenses. Do you prioritize the front lines, critical energy infrastructure, strategic military facilities, or the capital? The attack on the Kupotnaya refinery highlights that dilemma. For much of the war, Moscow has been able to portray the conflict as something distant, something happening in Ukraine rather than in Russia. But every successful strike against the Russian homeland makes that argument harder to sustain. And every refinery fire, airport disruption or explosion inside Russia raises new questions about the Kremlin's ability to protect its own territory and to protect its citizens.