Monday, August 24th, 2026 - Iran’s Regime Is Starting to Crack From Within & Piracy Rises In the Gulf of Aden

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Cappy Army. But we go beyond simply just telling you what happened in a war. We actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Cappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Cappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports. And remember to follow today.

**Mike Baker** (0:43)
It's Monday, the 24th of August. Where has the summer gone? It's going to be winter before you know it. We'll all be singing, baby, it's cold outside. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, an apparent argument surfaces inside Iran's government over whether the Iranian regime should negotiate and end to the war or pursue confrontation. I'll have the details. Later in the show, piracy appears to be making a comeback. Somali pirates seize a suspected Iranian shadow fleet tanker in the region's second hijacking in just four days. Plus, Russia targets Ukrainian civilians, and then they target the rescuers sent to save them. And in today's Back of the Brief, Iranian hackers may be opening another front against the West by targeting the UK's energy infrastructure. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. After nearly six months of war, Iran's leadership is reportedly beginning to fracture over one increasingly urgent question. Should the regime keep fighting or negotiate a way out in order to start rebuilding an economy in crisis?
Iranian President, Masoud Peseshkian, said Friday that the war must eventually end, and that Iran should declare victory and negotiate while it can still claim to be acting from a position of strength. Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammed Bakr Galibov, delivered a similar warning. He argued that military power cannot provide security if Iran's economy is collapsing, and its people can no longer afford their daily needs. Now, that's an unusually candid message from two of the most senior officials inside the Islamic Republic. And it's also a direct challenge to the hardliners who want Iran to maintain its demands, prepare for another round of fighting, and resist any agreement that could be portrayed as surrendering to President Trump. Now, Peseshkian and Galibov remain part of the regime, but just how much authority or say they have within the leadership, well, that remains in question. It is possible that the political figures within the leadership, not to mention the clerics, have been sidelined, as more IRGC hardliners assume responsibility for the military and security apparatus. And the new supreme leader, Mostabeh Khamenei, well, he remains a mystery. It's not clear if he's alive and calling the shots, or incapacitated and sidelined, serving as essentially a rubber stamp for IRGC decision making, or if he's in fact dead. But when senior officials begin publicly debating whether the country can afford to continue a war, it does suggest a deepening divide within the key elements of a regime. And the timing here is important. As we reported last week, President Trump is preparing to launch what he calls quote, economic D-Day, an effort to cut Iran off from nearly every remaining source of trade and money and foreign investment. Trump has warned that any country, bank or business, providing the Iranian regime with an economic lifeline could face severe consequences from the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was even more direct, saying foreign governments will effectively have to choose whether they are with Washington or against it. The administration is expected to reveal the details of that campaign on Monday. As an aside, China is basically Iran's most important lifeline. The effectiveness of this economic D-Day plan rests on whether China decides to cut off their support for Iran or ignore Trump's warnings.
Now, we talked at length about this issue during this past weekend's PDB situation report with investigative reporter and all-around smart guy Joshua Philipp. I hope you check that out. Of course, Iran's economy was already struggling before the war. The fighting, the naval blockade and existing sanctions have driven its currency even lower, pushed up the cost of basic necessities and made it increasingly difficult for Iranian families to afford food and medicine and fuel.
Peseshkin and Kalibaf appeared to understand where that pressure could eventually lead. Iran's leaders are still haunted by the unrest that erupted earlier this year. Now mind you, they're not haunted about killing thousands of their own citizens. They seem fine with that. They're just haunted by the unrest that could cause them to lose their grip on power. They know that another economic shock could turn frustration over prices and shortages into a much broader challenge to their regime.