Mike Wilson: The AI Trade Has a Breaking Point, We're Just Nowhere Near It

**Guy Adami** (0:00)
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**Mike Wilson** (1:48)
This is not any different than any big capital spending cycle. There will be a massive hangover. There will be malinvestment here. There will be disappointment. So for as bad as it was between 2000 and 2002, when the internet bubble blew up, every one of those estimates was off by like a factor of 10 Meaning it was bigger. It was bigger because the marginal cost of that communication went to zero. That's how you think about this cycle, is that they're building all this stuff. Elon is the ultimate builder, right? He's going to build all this stuff in space and maybe you're more skeptical than I am.
And yeah, he's probably going to lose money on a bunch of different things, but it's going to create this opportunity set for things we can't even imagine. And that's the trajectory.

**Dan Nathan** (2:29)
Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I am Dan Nathan, that is Guy Adami.

**Guy Adami** (2:33)
I'm checking out this, what do they call swag?

**Dan Nathan** (2:35)
Yeah, we have swag too, by the way. Look at this, like pretty dope. You have some of these, don't you? That's Mike Wilson.

**Guy Adami** (2:41)
So good.

**Dan Nathan** (2:41)
He is the chief equity strategist and CIO at Morgan Stanley. This is your 15th appearance on the Risk Reversal Podcast.

**Guy Adami** (2:49)
Makes you the longest standing guest we've had. I mean, it's like Saturday Night Live, if you host five times or something, they put you in like a hall.

**Dan Nathan** (2:56)
No, they give you like a jacket or something like that.

**Guy Adami** (2:59)
We don't have that for you.

**Dan Nathan** (3:00)
So by the way, when you say longest standing, this is no joke. Mike Wilson is my longest standing friend in this business. You and I met in the late 90s.

**Guy Adami** (3:09)
What? We're friends? Is that what you said?

**Dan Nathan** (3:11)
All right. But you and I are going to go, we're going to do two segments because Guy Adami has a show to do. We just were informed.

**Guy Adami** (3:16)
That's CNBC's Fast Money.

**Dan Nathan** (3:18)
But you know who else is on that show?

**Guy Adami** (3:19)
Mike Wilson and Dan Nathan.

**Dan Nathan** (3:20)
Correct. But you go up there, it takes a little bit longer for him for the makeup. Okay. So you and I, on the B block of this, we're going to take a...

**Guy Adami** (3:28)
Walk down memory lane.

**Dan Nathan** (3:29)
Yeah, there we are. We're going to talk about the early 2000s, really the bubble popping, but really the lead up to that.
Mike, you are a prolific strategist. You also, as a CIO, you oversee lots of funds. You talk to some of the biggest investors that exist on this planet. Where are you right now? You made a pretty epic turn, I want to say, two years ago. You got really bullish. You were, as you would say, you held on a little too long in 23 We did the same thing, by the way. Where are you right now? Let's just kind of take stock a little bit of the market. We've just made new highs in the S&P 500 in a very, very glorious way.