Lots More With Matt Boesler

Tracy Alloway (0:00)

Joe, are you really going to make us buy tickets to your show?

Joe Weisenthal (0:02)

Yeah.

Tracy Alloway (0:03)

Aren't you supposed to comp them?

Joe Weisenthal (0:04)

No.

Tracy Alloway (0:05)

Don't we get any benefits?

Joe Weisenthal (0:06)

No. No, no, no.

Tracy Alloway (0:10)

Why?

Joe Weisenthal (0:10)

Because...

Tracy Alloway (0:11)

Does it have to be like a profitable enterprise?

Joe Weisenthal (0:14)

Yeah, the reason is, the reason why everyone has to pay is because we have to sell out.

And we have no business playing this play. It was like the whole thing was just...

Tracy Alloway (0:26)

If I pay, do I at least get like a backstage pass or something?

Joe Weisenthal (0:29)

You can come backstage.

Tracy Alloway (0:30)

Something?

Joe Weisenthal (0:31)

Yes. If you pay, what do you mean, if you pay? When you pay?

This is...

Tracy Alloway (0:38)

I have a very strict concert budget. This is gonna blow it out of the water.

Joe Weisenthal (0:42)

I did a deadlift. One, two, three.

Tracy Alloway (0:47)

Hegemony. Barges.

Joe Weisenthal (0:52)

This is an after-school special, except...

Tracy Alloway (0:54)

I've decided I'm gonna base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US.

Joe Weisenthal (1:00)

Where's the best squid ink pasta?

Tracy Alloway (1:01)

These are the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world?

Joe Weisenthal (1:04)

No, I think that in a couple years, the AI will do a really good job of making the Odd Lots podcast, and people will think, I don't really need to listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. We do have the perfect guest.

Tracy Alloway (1:20)

Well, in the meantime, this is Lots More.

Joe Weisenthal (1:22)

A weekly chat about whatever is on our minds. What's up, bro?

Tracy Alloway (1:31)

What are you wearing to Luke's wedding?

Matt Boesler (1:33)

Just a suit, you know.

Joe Weisenthal (1:35)

Same.

Matt Boesler (1:37)

How about you?

Joe Weisenthal (1:38)

Yeah, I gotta see which suit is currently clean, but I'll find something.

Matt Boesler (1:43)

I think I'm gonna go with my bright blue one, cause that's the one that I've been going to, like so many weddings last year.

Joe Weisenthal (1:47)

You gotta mix it up.

Let's do it. What is your hashtag NFP guesses?

Matt Boesler (1:53)

Are we live?

Joe Weisenthal (1:54)

Pretty sure. I think so. What is your NFP guesses? Okay, so just to set it up, the Bloomberg consensus for the jobs report is, it is 170K down from 187K last month, unemployment rate expected to fall to 3.7%, average hourly earnings growth expected to grow 0.3% month over month.

So Tracy and Matt, Matt Boesler, what are your guys' hashtag NFP guesses?

Tracy Alloway (2:25)

I feel a lot of pressure. We normally don't reveal our guesses until after the number.

Joe Weisenthal (2:33)

Come on. All right, I'll go.

Tracy Alloway (2:34)

You go first.

Matt Boesler (2:35)

Well, aren't we gonna be revealing these guesses after the number?

Tracy Alloway (2:38)

I guess that's technically true.

Joe Weisenthal (2:40)

This episode will be out at 4 a.m. If early listeners will be hearing this, this is important. All right, I'm gonna just go.

I think we're gonna get a big number. Paying trade continues to be hotter and higher, so I'm gonna say 250K new jobs and the unemployment rate 3.6%. I will say I do an inline average hourly earnings of a 0.3%.

Matt Boesler (3:07)

Well, I was gonna go with above 200K too, so I'll say 201 We had like the weakest ADP report since like 2021 this week, so you know it's gonna be like the exact opposite.

Joe Weisenthal (3:17)

It's gonna be a blowout.

Matt Boesler (3:18)

Also, if you think about-

Joe Weisenthal (3:19)

I'm sorry for ADP.

Matt Boesler (3:20)

But last month's jobs report too was I think 187

Okay, if I recall correctly. And that had like a huge drag from both the striking writers and actors and also the yellow layoffs.

Joe Weisenthal (3:33)

Oh, the yellow layoffs.

Matt Boesler (3:34)

So maybe there is good reason to assume like a big bounce back.

Tracy Alloway (3:37)

Wait, is this like Price is Right rules where if you're slightly above, you lose? Is that how it worked?

I can't remember.

Joe Weisenthal (3:45)

Yes. Yes.

Tracy Alloway (3:46)

Cause then I'll take 200 And then if it's below 200, I win, right?

Joe Weisenthal (3:54)

I think it's just whoever's closest wins.

Tracy Alloway (3:57)

Well, I think it'll probably be stronger than 170, but I'm not sure it's gonna be a blowout number like we've seen in some previous months.