Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio, News.

Conor Sen (0:08)

Do you guys know what today is?

Tracy Alloway (0:10)

It's our 10-year anniversary because everyone keeps sending us messages.

Joe Weisenthal (0:14)

I know, we only knew, I didn't realize that today was the actual 10-year anniversary until I started getting e-mails from random people this morning. It's like, oh, happy 10 years, like what?

Tracy Alloway (0:23)

Random Bloomberg people too.

Conor Sen (0:25)

I thought I would be the first to e-mail.

Joe Weisenthal (0:26)

Oh, yeah. Sorry, Ned.

Tracy Alloway (0:28)

In our hearts, you were the first.

Conor Sen (0:30)

Yes, 10 years ago today, the first episode of Odd Lots. I do have, I forget who sent this to me. I have a mug.

Joe Weisenthal (0:36)

Yeah. So happy anniversary to us.

Tracy Alloway (0:38)

Happy birthday.

Joe Weisenthal (0:39)

Happy birthday.

Tracy Alloway (0:40)

What did you get me?

Joe Weisenthal (0:40)

I guess it's a little weird. Happy anniversary to us. Happy birthday to Odd Lots. You know what? I didn't get you anything.

Tracy Alloway (0:48)

I know you didn't. I wait with bated breath for a gift from Joe one of these days.

Joe Weisenthal (0:53)

You know what? No, that's not true. I've gotten you a gift.

Tracy Alloway (0:57)

Name one.

Joe Weisenthal (0:59)

I always bring back sweets when I travel.

Tracy Alloway (1:01)

Everyone does that.

Joe Weisenthal (1:02)

No, no, no. I guess that doesn't count.

Conor Sen (1:03)

You're right.

Joe Weisenthal (1:03)

You know what would be a really wonderful gift? What? Fresh jobs data.

SPEAKER_1 (1:08)

Oh, yes.

Joe Weisenthal (1:11)

I did a deadlift.

Tracy Alloway (1:12)

I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel.

Joe Weisenthal (1:17)

Fed is going viral.

Tracy Alloway (1:19)

Barges.

Joe Weisenthal (1:19)

This is an after-school special, except.

Tracy Alloway (1:21)

I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US.

Joe Weisenthal (1:27)

Black gold.

Tracy Alloway (1:28)

These are the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world?

Joe Weisenthal (1:31)

No. I think that in a couple of years, the AI will do a really good job of making the Odd Lots podcast. One day that person will have the mandate of heaven.

Tracy Alloway (1:41)

How do I get more popular and successful?

Joe Weisenthal (1:43)

We do have the perfect guest.

Tracy Alloway (1:46)

You're listening to Lots More, where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now.

Joe Weisenthal (1:51)

Because even when the Odd Lots is over, there's always Lots More.

Tracy Alloway (1:54)

And we really do have the perfect guest. I don't know about you guys, but I did not expect to miss the NFP as much as I am at the moment. I just thought, you know, we have all the alt data, things will be fine.

Joe Weisenthal (2:10)

It doesn't hit the same, does it, Conor? It doesn't.

Conor Sen (2:14)

ADP, like having to care about ADP is the worst.

Joe Weisenthal (2:17)

You're like, all these estimates or whatever. It's like, it just doesn't, even if you know it's coming out, it doesn't hit the same. There's nothing like the Chicago Fed estimate of unemployment.

Conor Sen (2:27)

Like, all right, Austin Gouldsby, I like you, but not the same.

Joe Weisenthal (2:30)

Well, wait, we got to get him on here.

Tracy Alloway (2:32)

Okay. So the one upside of not having the official data, the official jobs data because of the government shutdown is everyone gets to be really mean about the alt data, right? And say, like, really harsh things about why they don't like ADP. But could someone just remind me why we hate ADP?

Joe Weisenthal (2:49)

Oh, yeah. What's wrong with it, Conor?

Conor Sen (2:51)

I mean, it's always they revise it to the BLS data. So it's like, here's our estimate. And then six months later, you revise it. Then the historical data looks fine. But in the moment, it's actually not the same at all.

Joe Weisenthal (3:00)

It's interesting because, you know, people always say, like, ADP. Oh, it missed again. But it is a little weird. And it gets to, I think, some philosophical things which aren't necessarily worth diving into for a conversation about what does it even mean to be right or wrong? I mean, NFP gets revised all the time. NFP is just a model for the real economy. You know, a little confusing the map and the territory stuff. Anyway, when people are listening to this, it should have been Jobs Day. And so I don't really think there's going to be a report unless somehow the government gets hope. I don't think that's happening.