Julian Gewirtz on Trump-Xi Summit, AI, and Mao Dead Fifty Years Ago!

Julian Gewirtz (0:00)

The real question to my mind is not, do we need to prepare for China's decline, but do we need to prepare for Xi Jinping's decline? One of the things that is so remarkable about this visit is that there is not a very deep substantive agenda at all. Across the board, it's clear that Trump is inviting Xi Jinping primarily because he wants to put on a show, and he wants to change the channel on things like the Iran War. In this case, they're sending Xi Jinping into what a lot of them see as into the lion's den. When you're an American AI model company leader, you can talk as much as you want about risks you don't have a solution for. But if you're the Minister of State Security in China, you cannot do that. Question I think we have to be relentlessly focused on is not where could this go wrong or where could there be a protocol slip up, but fundamentally, where is the trade happening? Where are we getting substance for giving them symbolism?

Jordan Schneider (0:55)

Julian Gewirtz joins ChinaTalk, a distinguished author, former Biden China NSC official. We are recording this just days before Xi Jinping touches down to the US for the first time to the White House since 2015 That deserves a ChinaTalk podcast.

Julian Gewirtz (1:15)

Absolutely. Absolutely. You can feel the vibes in the air already.

Jordan Schneider (1:18)

Everyone is just thrilled and waiting on bait and breath for all those readouts. He's going to be performing at the state dinner.

Julian Gewirtz (1:28)

Exactly.

Jordan Schneider (1:28)

Julian has his money on Nicki Minaj.

Julian Gewirtz (1:31)

I do not have my money on Nicki Minaj, but I do think it will be interesting to see Xi Jinping is going to get a state dinner, which is a big deal. It's not something that the president gives freely these days. And usually a state dinner is followed by some sort of musical performance. So we'll see. In 2015, Xi Jinping got Nio, the R&B singer. We can talk about that. But I don't think Nio is going to be coming back this year.

Jordan Schneider (1:58)

No, they've actually booked ChinaTalk.

Julian Gewirtz (2:02)

ChinaTalk?

Jordan Schneider (2:03)

A tight 10

Julian Gewirtz (2:04)

ChinaTalk is going to do three of its top singles. Jordan, you have been doing these songs.

Jordan Schneider (2:10)

That's true. That's true. I think, yeah, me just pressing play on my AI music. No, I'm pressing it and she, I mean, probably like you think she'll sing.

Julian Gewirtz (2:23)

That would be interesting. So, yeah, Peng Liyuan, Xi Jinping's wife is a train singer.

I don't think she's been performing very often in her role as China's first lady.

Jordan Schneider (2:34)

You'd be giving us way too much face, I think, for her to do this for the first time in like 20 years. You know there is a betting market on she getting a divorce?

Julian Gewirtz (2:43)

Did not know that.

Jordan Schneider (2:44)

You said less than a percent. I feel like that sounds about right to me.

Julian Gewirtz (2:48)

The logic chain by which someone decides to put money on that scenario at all is honestly hard for me to grok, but here we are.

Jordan Schneider (2:56)

All right, let's talk about something. People could not have lower expectations for what is coming out of this. I mean, first time this administration has managed expectations perhaps correctly in a long while, but I don't know, a case for caring.

Julian Gewirtz (3:13)

Yeah, you know, it's really interesting when Trump went to China in May, the last time we spoke on the podcast, the administration was in a mode of building up expectations. This is going to be a historic visit, that kind of thing. And Beijing was also kind of playing into that because for Beijing was a huge deal to have the president of the United States go there.

This time we are not seeing that same degree of amping up expectations. And I think there is a set of reasons for that. One is that this is happening, this state visit is happening 40 days before the US midterm elections. So President Trump clearly really wants to do it. He's excited to show off his White House renovations to Xi Jinping. He's excited to have somebody he sees as a peer on the world stage come through town. But I don't think the rest of the apparatus around him is really in the mode of building this one up yet. And the second is that on the Chinese side, my own view is that there's a lot of anxiety about how little planning has gone into this. When the Chinese side is hosting, ultimately, if a decision hasn't been made through a bilateral negotiation, it's Beijing. They can decide what they're going to do. In this case, they're sending Xi Jinping into what a lot of them see as into the lion's den. Washington DC, not a terribly friendly place. Xi Jinping, 17 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of him.