Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on the US-Iran Deal, Hormuz Realities, and Iran's Nuclear Future

**Jake Sullivan** (0:04)
For me, the most likely case scenario is that the Strait does reopen, the blockade does end, Iran gets access to this economic windfall. They start a nuclear negotiation, and that nuclear negotiation just kind of goes on indefinitely.

**Jon Finer** (0:23)
You know, it's part of the theory for why we want it to be energy independent, at least for some people was, so we could stop intervening in conflicts in the Middle East.

**Jason Bordoff** (0:33)
Right now, the US-Iran war is suspended under a fragile 60-day clock. A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is meant to halt attacks, begin lifting the US naval blockade, and restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But deep uncertainty remains over how energy will actually flow through the waterway, and over the ultimate fate of Iran's nuclear program. Despite all this, the situation remains highly volatile. Israel has stated it does not consider itself bound by the MOU, and political pressure within the US could quickly shift Washington's calculations if the reopening of the Strait yields minimal strategic concessions on Iran's ballistic missiles, nuclear enrichment, and regional proxy networks. So where are we? What happens next? How will global energy markets and regional security adjust if this temporary truce collapses? Who ultimately holds the leverage in this next phase of the crisis?
This is Columbia Energy Exchange, a weekly podcast from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. I'm Jason Bordoff.
Today on this special edition of the show, I speak with two people who recently sat at the very center of US foreign policy, Jake Sullivan and John Finer.
Jake served as National Security Advisor during the Biden Administration, where he was the chief architect of the 2022 National Security Strategy, coordinated the global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and designed the Small Yard High Fence Framework for US-China Technology Competition. Last year, he joined the Harvard Kennedy School as the Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order. John served alongside him as Deputy National Security Advisor, bringing decades of experience in high-stakes diplomacy and crisis management and international law to the highest levels of government. John held a number of roles in the Obama Administration, including Chief of Staff to Secretary of State John Kerry, and he was a distinguished visiting fellow right here at the Center on Global Energy Policy. John and Jake are also the hosts of The Long Game, an essential podcast for anyone trying to make sense of foreign policy and national security in our world today. We talked about the immediate stakes of the Iran ceasefire and the realities of nuclear deterrence. We considered the ways that the global order is shifting, and we looked at what the energy sector is learning from tectonic shifts in oil and gas supply. We kicked off by chatting about some of the discussions they've been having on The Long Game, including the geopolitics of the World Cup. I hope you enjoy the conversation. Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer, welcome to Columbia Energy Exchange. So great to have you both with us. Thanks for making the time.

**Jake Sullivan** (3:19)
Thanks for having us.

**Jon Finer** (3:20)
Good to be here, man.

**Jason Bordoff** (3:21)
I think the first time you have both been on Columbia Energy Exchange, maybe even, well, you've been on individually. Jake is a speaker at our big summit, and Jon, when you became a distinguished visiting fellow here, first time together, a podcast, I should say, we've been doing every week for more than 10 years, and it seems like now they'll just give anyone a podcast, even the two of you.
How is being a podcast host? Give me tips on how I should talk with both of you. What have you learned?

**Jake Sullivan** (3:50)
Well, we're starting to learn again how to talk like normal human beings rather than government officials.
That's taken a little bit of an adjustment because, of course, we spent four years trying to color between the lines. That's how we get to kind of say whatever's on our mind. It's nice. It's nice to have that kind of liberation.

**Jon Finer** (4:06)
Maybe least surprising, Jason, is that it takes two of us to do the work that you do all by yourself here, so go figure.

**Jason Bordoff** (4:13)
Well, we have two also because we trade off every other week. Bill Loveless and I just don't do it together.
Are you still super guarded and careful in what you say, or are you loosening up a little bit now?

**Jon Finer** (4:25)
The stakes are low, mercifully so.

**Jake Sullivan** (4:29)
But it is a wiring thing. You got to do a little bit of rewiring, so it's been a learning curve. But I would say now 30-odd episodes in, yeah, we're a lot looser.